What’s on the economic calendar today?
The first look at Q4 GDP is due at the bottom of the hour and the consensus is an annualized rate of +4.2%. There are considerable divergences among economists with a range of 2.7% to 6.8%.
The key swing factor will be personal consumption which rose at a 41.0% annualized pace in Q2. It’s expected to rise another 3.1%.
At the same time as the GDP report we get:
- Weekly US initial jobless claims
- US December advance goods trade balance
- December US wholesale inventories
- Canadian December building permits
Basically all the news will hit at the same time today and then later we get a US 7-year auction.
Outside of the US, the ECB’s Schnable speaks at 1715 GMT on a panel. A report yesterday suggested that markets were underestimating the chance of a rate cut.