Archives of “January 26, 2021” day

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ECB said to query dollar weakness despite stronger US economy

  
  Analysis

ECB concern about the EUR strength

ECB Lagarde after the meeting last week, spoke about the currency and how it’s strength was impacting inflation.
An ECB sources now on the wires saying that:
  • ECB said to query dollar weakness despite stronger US economy
  • Will study impact of ECB vs. Fed policy on exchange rates
The EURUSD has moved lower on the headline and as now moved back below its 100 hour moving average 1.21471.  The 200 hour moving average is down at 1.21296.
EURUSD on the 5 minute chart

European shares rebound from yesterday’s tumble lower

  
Analysis, Global Indices

German DAX rises 1.7%

The major European indices are closing higher and rebounding from yesterday’s tumble lower. Provisional closes shows:

  • German DAX, +1.8%. Yesterday the German DAX fell -1.66%
  • France’s CAC, +1.2%. Yesterday France’s CAC fell -1.57%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.3%. Yesterday the UK FTSE 100 fell -0.84%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.8%. Yesterday Spain’s Ibex fell -1.73%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.1%. Yesterday Italy’s FTSE MIB fell -1.6%
in other markets as European/London traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is trading down $1 or -0.06% at $1855.
  • Spot silver is up $0.21 or 0.84% a $25.56
  • WTI crude oil futures down $0.22 of -0.40% $52.56
  • Bitcoin is trading down $1027 or -3.14% at $31684
In the forex market, the NZD remains the strongest of the majors, while the USD is the weakest.  The USD as gotten weaker in the NY session but is marginally higher (off lows) since the US stock opening.

The Fed FOMC meeting is this week – preview (spoiler , on hold)

  
  Analysis

The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement will be issued on  Wednesay 27 January at 2pm NY time (1900GMT)

  • followed a half-hour later by Chair Powell’s press conference
Earlier preview here:
  • FOMC is widely expected to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting.
Excerpts from Westpac on what they expect:
  • recent data for the US has been decidedly downbeat
  • pandemic risks remain elevated
  • FOMC is likely to err on the optimistic side when assessing the economic outlook
  • now that the Democrats have control over Congress, prospects for fiscal stimulus are much improved. Moreover, vaccine deployment has begun and is expected to quickly ramp up. 
  • The above does not mean the FOMC will take a back step with policy in the foreseeable future. Financial conditions must remain highly accommodative so as to make sure the recovery does not mature before full employment is reached and inflation is back at target. 
  • The risks to inflation and employment will remain to the downside throughout 2021
The Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee meeting statement will be issued on  Wednesay 27 January at 2pm NY time (1900GMT) 

Pfizer vaccine gets encouraging feedback from a leading Israeli healthcare provider

  
Analysis, COVID-19

COVID-19 vaccination going full steam ahead in Isreal:

  • The Tel Aviv Trade is the key 2021 barometer
Check out that post above if you haven’t already.
Reuters have a piece up today:
  • Fewer than 0.01% of people who received Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine have contracted the virus more than a week after receiving the second dose, a leading Israeli healthcare provider said on Monday.

BOJ December policy meeting minutes released

  
Analysis, Economy

Bank of Japan Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting on December 17 and 18, 2020

Full text is here, link

The minutes of each meeting are preceded by many weeks by the ‘Summary of Opinions’. Those for this meeting can be found here:
  • BOJ December monetary policy meeting Summary of Opinions

Headlines via Reuters:

 

 

  • members shared view BOJ should ease without hesitation if needed with eye on pandemic development
  • a few members said BOJ must analyse effect of its policies to see how it can achieve its inflation target
  • most members said appropriate to examine BOJ’s policy measures on basis it will maintain current policy framework
  • several members said BOJ must seek ways to make its ETF buying more flexible as ultra-easy policy is prolonged
  • one member said BOJ’s ETF buying is already flexible but worth seeking more ideas
  • several members said must be ready to effectively respond to possible changes to economic, price, financial developments
  •  one member said BOJ must control shape of yield curve more meticulously as desirable for curve to steepen moderately
  • several members said boosting small, medium-sized firms’ profitability via digitalisation is crucial in strengthening japan’s growth potential
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