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Georgia exit poll shows more older voters and solid Republican turnout

  
  Analysis

CNN releases Georgia exit poll done by Edison Research

CNN releases Georgia exit poll done by Edison Research
CNN is out with its exit poll from Georgia even though the polls don’t close for another 2 hours.
The data is trickling out but the early data is positive for Republicans because it shows an older electorate and a 1 pp increase in registered Republican voters.
  • Republican: 39% (vs 38% in general)
  • Democrat: 36%
  • Independents: 25%
Here is what they say about the methodology, which suggests they’re trying to capture all voters, not just those who voted in person.
The CNN exit poll was conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of CNN, ABC News, CBS News and NBC News. Interviews were completed with 5,260 voters in one of three ways: In-person on Election Day at 39 polling places across Georgia, in-person at 25 early voting locations around the state or by telephone for voters who cast ballots by mail or in-person during early voting. Results for the full sample of voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, it is larger for subgroups
There will be more results soon and that could paint a clearer picture. However PredictIt is showing a shift towards Republicans hanging onto Senate control. It’s up to 65-37 from 53-49 a couple hours ago (it doesn’t add up to 100 because of the spread).
A separate interesting data point is that DeKalb county election day turnout has hit 47,182, surpassing the number of ballots cast on election day in the presidential contest. If that’s representative of the state, it’s good for Republicans. But that’s a heavily-Democratic county so it might be that their supporters are turning out. Or it could simply reflect less fear of covid.

The Georgia election is all about the 1% (in bonds)

  
  Analysis

A break looks inevitable

A break looks inevitable
US 10-year yields have pushed to the upside in the past few hours but they’re still within the recent range.
In the bigger picture though, the series of higher lows approaching 1%, paints a picture of a market getting ready to bust higher.
If Democrats sweep tonight, that move will be tomorrow. Higher deficits and higher inflation are a slam-dunk bet on a Dem sweep and that means higher yields.
That part is straight-forward enough but what’s less clear is how that filters back into the FX market.
In general, higher Treasury yields are good for the dollar, particularly USD/JPY and USD/CHF. But that relationship hasn’t exactly been rock solid in the past two years and especially not during the pandemic.
USDJPY and 10s
So I’m inclined to believe that bonds can move without ending the USD bear market. However on the day/week that 1% breaks, expect a kneejerk reaction.
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