Thought For A Day
Archives of “December 2020” month
rssGermany moves closer to harder lockdown – report
Germany set to move from ‘lockdown light’ to a harder lockdown
The German virus situation looks to be taking a turn for the worse in the past week, with a record amount of daily cases reported on Friday alongside the deadliest day of the pandemic as the death count continues to rack up.
In the past week alone i.e. 7 to 13 December, Germany reported 3,015 virus deaths and that accounts for nearly 14% of the total virus deaths since the pandemic began.
German news outlet, n-tv, is reporting that the federal and state governments have largely agreed on tougher restrictions and a harder lockdown, which should go into effect starting from Wednesday, 16 December next week.
The measures should initially apply until 10 January, with an extension to be discussed on 5 January. The final decision will be made later this morning.
Some of the details from the report reveal that Germany will close retail shops barring essentials, schools are also to be closed or at least attendance be made non-mandatory, and there will be a ban on consumption of alcohol in public.
Again, this will have a negative impact on economic prospects and the overall outlook going into Q1 2021. However, the ECB has already responded accordingly with its “recalibration” measures all the way through to June 2022 at least.
The central bank measures may yet be enough to get the market to “ignore” the ongoing pessimism and keep with vaccine optimism. But just be mindful that the more negative news that we get in the meantime, it will slowly and surely add up.
Brexit: Everything still on the table as we approach supposed “point of finality”
What’s the latest buzz on the Brexit front
So, Sunday is now here. However, we’re not getting anything new on the Brexit front so far; from an official capacity at least.
Talks are still said to be “very difficult” and more discussions are set to take place today, though so far UK sources are saying that the offer by the EU remains “unacceptable”.
There is also a likelihood that we will see Johnson and von der Leyen speak again later tonight before anything is finalised and/or communicated publicly.
At the moment, the latest is that UK foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, is out saying that talks are not looking good and while technical discussions are still ongoing, he insists that movement is needed by the EU on a political level to strike a compromise.
I would bet the EU is saying the same thing, so there you have it.
The same key outstanding issues are still leading to a stalemate with Raab saying that the proposals put forward by the EU have been “pretty outlandish”.
In other words, both sides are still not blinking in this game of chicken.
As things stand, we could either see a deal, no-deal, or perhaps even talks be extended further beyond this supposed “point of finality”.
According to Raab, if the deal was 99% there, it would make sense to keep talking.
Again, Brexit and missed deadlines. Name a more iconic duo. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
In any case, even if we do see both sides decide to walk away, just be reminded that the key “deadline” is 31 December. While there might not be a deal or some technical compromise now, it doesn’t mean we still won’t see one before the year ends.
What are the top 50 most profitable companies in the U.S. ? Fortune 500 in 2020
TRADERS AND THEIR IRRATIONAL BELIEFS
- What goes up must come down and vice versa. That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventually self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighting the tape.
- You have to be smart to make money. No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”
- Making money is hard. Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.
- I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable. Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula: Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability.
- To be successful, I have to trade without emotions. That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.
What are the key events and releases for next week’s trading
US electoral vote. FOMC, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan interest rate decisions
What’s on tap for next week.
Monday:
- US electoral vote
Tuesday:
- Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem speaks. 2:30 PM ET/1930 GMT.
Wednesday:
- OPEC meeting all day
- France flash PMI services index, 3:15 AM ET/0815 GMT. Estimate 39.1 vs. 38.8 last month
- German flash PMI manufacturing, 3:30 AM ET/0830 GMT. Estimate 56.2 vs. 57.8 last month. Services index 44.1 vs. 46.0 last month
- EU flash manufacturing PMI, 4 AM ET/0900 GMT. Estimate 53.0 vs. 53.8 last month. Services index 41.1 vs. 41.7 last month
- UK flash manufacturing PMI, 4:30 AM ET/0930 GMT. Last month 55.6. Services index estimate 50.5 vs. 47.6 last month
- Canada CPI. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT
- US retail sales. 8:30 AM/1330 GMT. Estimate -0.2% vs. +0.3% last month. Core retail sales +0.2% vs. 0.2% last month
- US Markit flash manufacturing index. 9:45 AM ET/1445 GMT. Estimate 56.0 vs. 56.7 last month. Services index 55.9 vs. 50.4 last month
- FOMC interest rate decision. 2 PM ET/1900 GMT. The FOMC will also announced their economic projections for inflation, GDP, and employment
- FOMC Powell will hold press conference at 2:30 PM ET, 1930 GMT
- New Zealand GDP quarter on quarter (third-quarter). 4:45 PM ET/2145 GMT. Estimate 12.8% vs. -12.2% in the 2nd quarter
Thursday:
- Australia employment change. 7:30 PM ET/0030 GMT. Estimate 40.9K vs. 178.8K last month. Unemployment rate 7.0% vs. 7.0% last month
- Swiss National Bank interest rate decision 3:30 AM ET, 0830 GMT
- Bank of England interest rate decision, 7 AM ET/1200 GMT
- Canada ADP nonfarm employment change, 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT’
- US Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate 20.1 vs. 26.3
- US initial jobless claims, 8:30 AM/1330 GMT. Estimate 780K vs. 853K last week
Friday:
- Bank of Japan monetary policy decision and press conference
- UK retail sales. 2 PM ET, 0700 GMT. Estimate -4.0% vs. 1.2% last month
- Germany Ifo business climate. 4 AM ET/0900 GMT. Estimate 90.2 vs. 90.7
- Canada retail sales. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Last month 1.1%
- US conference Board leading index. 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. Estimate 0.4% vs. 0.7%
- Federal Reserve releases bank stress test results at 4:30 PM ET/2130 GMT
The AUD is the strongest for the week, while the GBP is the weakest
The USD is modestly lower
For the week, the AUD is ending as the strongest of the major currencies, while the GBP is the run away weakest. Nearly a 1/3 of the gains for the AUD was against the GBP (+3.02%). The currency also moved 1.51% vs the EUR and 1.47% vs the USD.
The GBPU had declines ranging from -1.53% to -3.02% vs the major currencies.
In contrast, the USD is ending marginally changed vs all but the GBP and the AUD (the USD rose 1.59% vs the GBP and fell -1.47% vs the AUD). In fact, the current snap shot shows the dollar moved from 0.04% to 0.33% vs the major currencies. That is not a big change for the trading week.
Safe to say, the USD consolidated the recent declines this week.
CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs increased. GBP position switches from short to long
Weekly FX positioning data for the week ending December 8, 2020
- EUR long 156K vs 140K long last week. Longs increased by 16K
- GBP long 6K vs 8K short last week. Longs increased by 14k
- JPY long 48K vs 48K long last week. Unchanged
- CHF long 10K vs 15K long last week. Longs trimmed by 5K
- AUD short 10K vs 11K short last week. Shorts decreased by 1K
- NZD long 11K vs 9K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
- CAD short 21k vs 21K short last week. Unchanged
- prior week
Highlights:
- GBP position turned from short to positive
- EUR longs increased
- CHF and CAD are the only shorts. The biggest short is the CAD.
Disney boosts Dow into positive territory. The NASDAQ and S&P close lower
Major indices decline for the week
The shares of Disney rose by over 13% and boosted the Dow up by over hundred points alone. That was enough to lift the Dow to a near 50 point gain on the day. However, all the major indices had declines for the week with the S&P leading the way to the downside.
- S&P posts 3 day losing streak
- Dow industrial average closes higher for the 1st time in 3 days
- Russell 2000 has its 6 straight weekly gain as money flows from high cap,to low cap stocks
the final numbers are showing:
- S&P index fell -4.65 points or -0.13% to 3663.46
- NASDAQ index fell -27.938 points or -0.23% to 12377.82
- Dow industrial average rose 46.95 points or 0.16% to 30046.23
for the week:
- S&P index fell -0.96%
- NASDAQ index fell -0.69%
- Dow industrial average fell -0.57%
- The Russell 2000 gain 0.96% after falling -0.63% today
Some winners today included
- Disney, +13.59%
- Goodrx, +9.51%
- chewy, +9.03%
- Rackspace, +3.84%
- Lockheed Martin, +1.78%
- Microsoft, +1.32%
- Emerson, +1.3%,
- Honeywell, +1.25%
Some losers today included:
- Qualcomm, -7.37%
- Nio -7.19%
- Doordash, -6.0%
- Snowflake, -5.34%
- American Airlines, -5.17%
- Corsair, -4.65%
- Corning, -4.15%
- Airbnb, -3.93%
Although Doordash and Airbnb make the list of some of the big losers today, their IPOs this week were nothing short of spectacular.
Doordash was priced at $102 and is ending the week at $178.84, while Airbnb was priced at $68 a share and is closing at $139.03.
With all the IPOs being smash before the end of the year, Wall Street is reaping huge rewards. There is no recession there. Meanwhile, there is still no progress on Covid relief today.
Thought For A Day
