Archives of “December 2020” month

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China November Industrial Production 7.0% y/y (vs. expected 7.0%)

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese ‘activity’ data for November 2020.

Industrial Production 7.0% y/y

  • expected 7.0%, prior was 6.9%

Industrial Production YTD 2.3% y/y

  • expected 2.3%, prior was 1.8%

Fixed Assets (excluding rural) YTD 2.6% y/y

  • expected 2.6%, prior was 1.8%

Retail Sales 5.0% y/y

  • expected 5.0%, prior was 4.3%

Retail Sales YTD -4.8% y/y …. the only ‘beat’, not as negative as expected

  • expected -4.9%, prior was -5.9%

Huh. All central expectations are bang on the money except for that one tiny beat noted above.

JP Morgan lay out a scenario where demand for bitcoin surges an additional $600bn

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

JPM comments on the crypto, comes via a Bloomberg report, citing a recent $100m investment in Bitcoin by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co.

JPM say this highlights the potential for additional institutional demand in coming years
  • suggests adoption of Bitcoin is spreading from family offices and wealthy investors to insurance firms and pension funds
Says that even a small allocations toward the cryptocurrency could be significant
  • “MassMutual’s Bitcoin purchases represent another milestone in the Bitcoin adoption by institutional investors”
More from the note:
  • If pension funds, insurance co.s across developed markets (US, eurozone, Japan) allocate 1% of assets to Bitcoin, that would result in additional Bitcoin demand of $600 billion (compared to the current market cap around $356 billion – Bloomberg citing CoinMarketCap.)
JPM add a caveat:
  • these traditional investors face regulatory hurdles relating to risk levels and liability mismatches which would limit their investment into BTC.
JPM comments on the crypto, comes via a Bloomberg report, citing a recent $100m investment in Bitcoin by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. 

Rumour is the Bank of Japan will extend its corporate funding program at this week’s meeting

  
  Analysis

That headline comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (which does tend to get a bit of a heads up from time-to-time).

  • BOJ to extend the deadline for financing support measures for companies that support the new coronavirus
  • by about 6 months (currently scheduled to end in March 2021, so a 6 month extension would take it through to September 2021)
  • extension due to increased concerns about a downturn in the economy
Elsewhere, UBS Securities in Tokyo are expecting the BOJ to
  • emphasize policy coordination with the government
  • also an extended program through to September
Sony Financial flags a risk of a rising yen after the meeting, saying markets may perceive the BOJ extension measures as less bold than actions by other major central banks.

—

Bank of Japan monetary policy decision meeting is on the 17th to 18th.
That headline comes via Japanese media, Nikkei (which does tend to get a bit of a heads up from time-to-time).

Overnight : Mixed results in the US stock market today

  
Analysis, US Market

Nasdaq up but S&P and Dow lower

The US stocks are ending the day with mixed results. The Nasdaq is higher. The S&P and Dow is lower.  The small cap Russell 2000 rose too.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P fell -16.13 points or -0.44% at 3647.33
  • Nasdaq rose 62.167 points or 0.5% at 12440.03
  • Dow fell -186.33 points or -0.62% at 29860.04
The Dow was up 279 points at the high point today and traded to a new intraday high before rotating and closing near the session low.  A total of 6 of the Dow 30 stocks close higher on the day. Dow laggards included:
  • Disney, -3.68%
  • Chevron, -3.29%
  • J&J, -2.59%
  • Merck and Co, -2.42%
  • American Express, -2.42%

Other losers today included some of the highflying IPOs in 2020 (in bold below):

  • Doordash, -8.81%
  • Snowflake, -7.02%
  • Airbnb, 6.72%
  • Alcoa, -4.73%
  • US steel, -4.67%
  • Pfizer, -4.64%
  • United Airlines, -3.39%
  • AliBaba ADR, -3.11%
  • Chewy, -2.66%
  • Delta Air Lines -2.52%
Some winners today included:
  • Corsair, +7.91%
  • GoodRX, +5.32%
  • Tesla, +4.89%
  • Netflix, +3.82%
  • AMD, +3.39%
  • Corning, +3.25%
  • Box, +3.05%
  • PayPal holdings, +3.03%
  • Nvidia, +2.33%
  • Adobe, +2.24%
  • McDonald’s, +2.02% 6
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