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China’s digital currency

How is a digital yuan shaping up to be

Royal
In China, nearly 86% of payments are now digital, occurring mostly via mobile phones. The whole transaction happens with a click of a button, a fingerprint scan, or even using facial recognition. The digital Yuan is not a cryptocurrency, instead it is issued and managed by the Chinese central bank just like its fiat currency.

China’s Early Adopters

Still in its early stages and trials, the digital currency has one reason to exist, to create a cashless future. The difference between the digital currency and current electronic payments is that this currency will be directly transferred in or out of your electronic banking wallet, unlike the traditional e-banking system where an individual’s funds get deducted from his/her account value. On another note, a digital currency does not need to have paper banknotes to back up its true “theoretical” value, however a digital Yuan will be virtually created.

Economic Impact (more…)

Germany December ZEW survey current situation -66.5 vs -66.0 expected

latest data released by ZEW – 8 December 2020

  • Prior -64.3
  • Expectations 55.0 vs 46.0 expected
  • Prior 39.0
  • Eurozone expectations 54.4
  • Prior 32.8

The jump in the expectations component is what stands out in the report here as ZEW notes that the announcement of imminent vaccine approvals has made market experts more confident about the future outlook.

Once again, this feeds into the narrative that the market continues to be largely more forward looking and that will dictate sentiment in risk trades in the big picture.

Japan Q3 final GDP q/q annualized +22.9% vs +21.4% expected

Japan’s third look at Q3 GDP

  • Prelim reading was +21.4% q/q annualized
  • Prior was -28.1%
  • GDP sa +5.3% q/q vs. expected 5.0%, prior -7.9%
  • GDP nominal +5.5% q/q vs. expected 5.2%, prior -7.6%
  • GDP deflator (an inflation indication) % vs. expected 1.1%, prior 1.3%
  • Private consumption +5.1% vs. expected 4.7% q/q, prior -7.9%
  • Business spending -2.4% vs. expected -3.1%, prior -4.7%
  • Inventories cut 0.2 pp from GDP
This is a decent upgrade and a solid surprise.

Japanese October household spending +1.9% y/y vs +2.8% expected

Japanese spending and earnings report

Japanese October household spending
  • Prior was -10.2%
  • Spending +2.1% m/m vs +1.0% exp
Labor cash earnings -0.8% y/y

  • expected -0.7% y/y, prior -0.9%

Real cash earnings -0.2% y/y

  • expected -0.4% y/y, prior -1.1%

The headline spending numbers are a bit softer than hoped for but this is the first y/y rise in 13 months.

With Japan set to unveil another stimulus package, it’s all blue sky from here.

Dec Japan Reuters Tankan manufacturing -9 vs -13 prior

The Reuters Japan December survey

  • Best reading in 10 months
  • Prior was -13
  • Non-manufacturing -4
  • Prior non-manufacturing -13
Looking at the future indexes. The manufacturing Marc 2021 index was at -5 and non-manufacturing at -4.
These are good numbers and highlight the continuing recovery in Japan. Manufacturing was around -5 before the pandemic so we’re almost square. Non-manufacturing was at +15 pre-pandemic so it has a bit more work to do.
Dec Japan Reuters Tankan manufacturing
Today’s fresh round of stimulus will likely add to the upbeat mood.
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