The options for Trump tracking a path to victory are narrowing, which has prompted his fall-back position of refusing to accept the result.
This tweet the latest evidence of this strategy:
Trump plans to dispute the election result when he loses
Archives of “October 2020” month
rssUS election analysts at 538 have Biden with an 87% probability of winning
The latest forecasts from 538 on the presidential election, looking at the various outcomes:
Trump is pinning his chances now on the old ‘a week is a long time in politics’ saying. He is still campaigning hard, as is Biden, with a week to go.
Goldman Sachs on US equities in the week before an election – historical outperformance
Is another Turnaround Tuesday on the cards?
This via Goldman Sachs on US stocks showing how the week before a US presidential election performs. Long story short on this is the S&P 500 rallied 11 out of the last 12 Tuesday to Tuesday prior to Election Day
BlackRock has downgraded their US Treasury view
BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager (circa $7.4 trillion in assets under management. last time I looked).
The firm says it has downgraded nominal U.S. Treasuries and upgrading their inflation-linked peers. Citing:
- Markets are increasingly reflecting a unified Democratic government outcome that may lead to a significant fiscal expansion. This electoral outcome would bring forward the market pricing of the higher inflation regime that we were already reflecting in our strategic asset views.
Long story even shorter is fiscal expansion under Dem sweep would lead to higher UST yields, lower prices.
As a ps. the outlook for equities is neutral:
Major indices close lower but off there lowest levels
Dow, S&P, NASDAQ close below their 50 day moving averages
The rise to record Covid cases and the inability to reach a coronavirus stimulus deal has led to a sharp fall in the major indices to start the week.
The good news is that the prices are closing off there lowest levels. Some highlights include
- Each of the major indices close below their 50 day moving averages
- Dow industrial average was down -965 points at its worst level. The NASDAQ index was down -327 points and the S&P index was down -100 points at the lows
- S&P 500 at its worst day since September 23
- All 11 sectors of the S&P closed in the red
- NASDAQ closed lower for the 7th time in 10 days
The final numbers are showing:
- S&P index -64.45 points or -1.86% at 3400.94
- NASDAQ index -189.34 points or -1.64% at 11358.93
- Dow industrial average -649.86 points or -2.29% at 27685.73
Thought For A Day
“Discipline is choosing between what you want now and what you want most.” — Abraham Lincoln
Geopolitical: US sanctions Iranian ministry of petroleum, national oil company
New sanctions on Iran by the US treasury
US treasury has issued fresh Iran related sanctions targeting state oil sector
- US sanctions Iran ministry of petroleum, national oil company
- Also sanctions national Iranian tanker company
- US designates Iran minister of petroleum under sanctions
- US sanctions Iran entities, officials under counterterror power
The squeeze on Iran continues from the Trump administration
Biden will push for immediate $2 trillion stimulus package along with tax increases
From Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino
Now this is a bit dubious coming from Fox Business but Charlie Gasparino is a great reporter, so it’s almost certainly true.
He says that aides to Biden say if elected he will push for a $2 trillion stimulus package immediately along with tax increases and infrastructure spending. Obvious, he will need to control Congress to get that through.
I don’t think the market will care about a tax on incomes above $400K but a corporate tax hike immediately would be a different story.
In other election news, the final NYT poll of Texas has Trump ahead in that state 47-43%.
Merkel planning ‘lockdown light’ – report
Bild report
New measures are to be discussed on Wednesday, according to the report. It says she wants to keep schools and kindergartens open except in regions with very high case numbers.
The plan will focus on the closures of bars and restaurants and include a ban on events.
European Q4 GDP forecasts are way too high.