Archives of “October 2020” month

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Eurostoxx futures +0.7% in early European trading

  
  Global Indices
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A bit of catch-up play in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.8%
  • Spanish IBEX futures +0.4%
European indices close the day near the lows yesterday, down by over 2% across the board, missing out on the late recovery in US equities towards the latter stages.
Hence, the gains here are largely due to some catch-up play and belies the more tepid and cautious risk mood to kick start the session.
US futures aren’t doing a whole lot, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures keeping at flat levels at the moment. Major currencies are also mostly little change besides some mild strength in the yen, with AUD/USD seen a little weaker under its 100-day moving average.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.41% at 23,410.63

  
Analysis, Global Indices

A mixed day for Asian equities

Nikkei 16-10
Japanese stocks slumped to close the week, following the softer mood in Wall Street yesterday as US futures also keep more tepid in trading so far today.
But the Hang Seng is up by 1%, recouping early losses as Alibaba shares rebound strongly in anticipation of the Ant Group IPO, while Chinese equities keep more flat.
The overall risk mood remains more tepid and cautious, after having seen the strong wave of risk aversion early on yesterday countered by a late recovery in US stocks.
USD/JPY is keeping lower around 105.20-25 for the time being though but large expiries seen at 105.00 may well keep price action stuck ahead of North American trading.

WHO on Remdesiver vaccine disappointment – looking at alternatives to trial

  
  Analysis
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More from the WHO:
  • says solidarity therapeutics trial produces conclusive evidence on effectiveness of repurposed drugs for covid-19 in record time
  • says interim remdesivir, hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir and interferon regimens appeared to have little or no effect on 28-day mortality
  • who-interim results in trial indicate remdesivir appeared to have little or no effect on 28day mortality or in-hospital course of covid-19 in patients
  • study, which spans over 30 countries, looked at effects of treatments on overall mortality, initiation of ventilation, duration of hospital stay
  • newer antiviral drugs, immunomodulators and anti-sars cov-2 monoclonal antibodies are now being considered for evaluation at solidarity trial

Headlines via Reuters

US election – Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows rebound for Trump to only 11 points behind Biden

  
Analysis, Politics

This from the Wall Street Journal overnight, polling registered voters shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 42%

  • An 11 point lead which is an improvement for Trump as the previous poll had him trailing by 14.
In the detail of the piece is this:
  • The No. 1 election issue among those surveyed was the economy, and voters gave Republicans a 13-point advantage over Democrats as the better economic manager. Yet, the pollsters said voters this election cycle don’t seem to be voting based on that issue alone.
  • a recent example of Republicans losing an election while leading with voters on handling the economy was the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats gained enough seats to retake control of the House.
Here is the link for further (may be gated)
—
And, repeating this from earlier:
 I am aware that posts like this make some folks upset. They accuse me of all sorts of things, such as bias. Which is projection, but its OK as these folks are upset and hurting. If you would like to point me to any reputable polls showing Trump is ahead I’d be keen to post on those, it would add some interest to the race for the White House.
This from the Wall Street Journal overnight, polling registered voters shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 42%

US election poll gives Biden a double-digit point lead over Trump

  
Analysis, Politics

This an NPR/PBS poll published Thursday in the US.

  • Biden 54%
  • Trump 43%
  • “among likely voters in the poll”.
Says the piece:
  • It’s the highest level of support Biden has achieved since the poll began testing the head-to-head matchup in February
  • Biden continues to have an advantage with Black voters, Latinos, whites with a college degree, women, people who live in cities and suburbs, young voters and independents
  • Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse.
  • Biden has pulled ahead in several key states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016. But Trump is within striking distance.
Here is the link to the piece for more.
—
ps. I am aware that posts like this make some folks upset. They accuse me of all sorts of things, such as bias. Which is projection, but its OK as these folks are upset and hurting.
If you would like to point me to any reputable polls showing Trump is ahead I’d be keen to post on those, it would add some interest to the race for the White House.

This an NPR/PBS poll published Thursday in the US.

Major indices close lower for the 3rd straight day

  
Analysis, US Market

Major indices recover off session lows

The major indices close lower for the 3rd straight day. However the indices closed well off there lows for the day.

Highlights include
  • S&P and NASDAQ on track for weekly gain
  • Dow on track for its 1st losing week in 3 weeks
  • Healthcare was the worst sector while energy was the strongest
  • The Dow was down -332 point at the low
  • The S&P index was down -47.78 points at the lows
  • The NASDAQ was down -219.63 points
  • S&P and NASDAQ close 3% below its all-time high
  • Dow closes 4% below its all-time high
  • Dow is still negative on the year (-0.16%). The NASDAQ is up 30.55% while the S&P is up 7.82% year-to-date.

The final numbers are showing:

  • the S&P index fell -5.33 points or -0.15% at 3483.34. The high price reached 3489.08. The low price extended to 3440.89
  • the NASDAQ index fell 54.858 points or -0.47% at 11713.82. The high price reached 11740.68. The low price extended to 11559.10
  • the Dow industrial average fell -19.8 points or -0.07% at 28494.26. The high price reached to 28535.85. The low price extended to 28181.54.
In the European markets today, the major indices move lower with the Italy FTSE MIB down -2.77%. The Spain’s Ibex was the least hit at -1.44%. The German DAX fell by 2.49%

Major indices trim losses

  
Analysis, US Market

S&P and NASDAQ trim losses

With 37 or so minutes ago into the close, the major indices are making a comeback.

  • The S&P index is down -6 points or -0.17% at 3482.62. The high price reached 3483.35. The low price extended to 3440.89
  • The Dow industrial average is down 11 points or -0.04% at 28503.32. It’s low price reached 28181.54
  • the NASDAQ index still lags behind but has cut the laws to -48 points or -0.4% at 11722. It’s low price reached 11559.10
The clock is ticking the close. Remember the major indices have been down for 2 consecutive days, but the pairs are well off there lows

EIA weekly US crude oil inventories -3818K vs -2100K exp

  
Analysis, Crude

Weekly oil inventory and production data from the DOE

  • Prior was +501K
  • Gasoline -1626K vs -1300K exp
  • Distillates -7245K vs -962K exp
  • Cushing+2906 K vs +470K prior
  • Refinery utilization -2.0% vs -0.9% exp
  • Production 10.5 mbpd vs 11.0 prior

API data from late yesterday:

  • Crude -5422K
  • Cushing +2199K
  • Gasoline -1513K
  • Distillates -393K

That’s a large draw, particularly in distillates. There’s been an uptick in crude prices above $40 again after the report.

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