Some numbers to consider
Here is the RealClearPolitics national polling average with 4 days left to go in presidential elections (final results):
- 2004: Bush +2.6 (Bush +2.4)
- 2008: Obama +6.5 (Obama +7.3)
- 2012: Obama +0.1 (Obama +3.9)
- 2016: Clinton +1.6 (Clinton +2.1)
- 2020: Biden +7.4 (?)
Of course, the election is about the electoral college not the national vote. Consider the margins that Clinton lost this trio of swing states:
- Michigan (0.3 percentage points)
- Pennsylvania (0.7)
- Wisconsin (0.7)
If Biden can turn those three; or Michigan and Wisconsin along with Arizona or North Carolina then it’s a Biden win.
In 2016, the average for Michigan was Clinton +3.6. Trump won by 0.3pp. Right now it’s Biden +6.5.
In 2016, the average for Pennsylvania was Clinton +2.1. Trump won by 0.7 pp. Right now it’s Biden +3.6.
In 2016, the average for Wisconsin was Clinton 6.5. Trump won by 0.7 pp. Right now it’s Biden +6.4 but the state is getting hammered by covid.
Add in much better numbers in North Carolina (Biden +0.6), Arizona (tie), Ohio (tie), Georgia (Biden +0.4) and Florida (Biden +1.2) and there are so many ways Trump can lose.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for Trump to lose — not by a longshot — but it would be a bigger upset than four years ago.