Archives of “October 14, 2020” day

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European major indices end the session with mixed results

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Mixed results for the major European indices in trading today

The European stock markets are closed and the results are mixed. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.1%
  • France’s CAC, -0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.6%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.3%
In other markets as European/London traders look to exit:
  • S&P index -2.84 points or -0.08% at 3509.30
  • NASDAQ index -10.38 points or -0.09% at 11853.42
  • Dow industrial average -34.6 points or -0.12% at 28645.98
  • spot gold is trading up $18.09 or 0.96% at $1909.54
  • spot silver is up $0.29 or 1.22% $24.43
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $0.78 or 1.94% at $40.99
In the forex market, the USD has moved lower against all the major currencies (near unchanged vs. the CAD).  It is the weakest of the majors. The GBP has extended its move to the upside in the NY session.  It is the strongest currency by far today.

Heavy dose of central bank speakers coming up in New York trading

  
  Analysis

Lots of talk but few of them have anything to say

Lots of talk but few of them have anything to say
The PPI report is due at the bottom of the hour but it’s not likely to be noticed by the market. Prices are expected to rise 0.2% y/y with a large drag coming from energy.
The main news will be a steady stream of central bank comments but we’re just not at the point where any imminent action or theme is in play. Perhaps Haldane offers something new on negative rates but it will probably be a reiteration that they’re studying the issue. For Fed speakers, I’m looking for any insight on high-frequency indicators. All times GMT:
  • 1235 Fed Barkin
  • 1300 Fed Clarida
  • 1600 BOE Haldane
  • 1400 ECB Villeroy
  • 1415 ECB de Cos
  • 1430 BOC Lane
  • 2200 Fed Kaplan
  • 1900 Fed Quarles
  • 2200 RBA Lowe

On the PM earnings calendar:

  • United
  • Alcoa

Eurozone August industrial production +0.7% vs +0.8% m/m expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Eurostat – 14 October 2020

  • Prior +4.1%; revised to +5.0%
  • Industrial production -7.2% vs -7.0% y/y expected
  • Prior -7.7%; revised to -7.1%

Euro area factory output continues to highlight an improvement in Q3 but the recovery pace is losing some steam with the August bounce, though expected, not all too robust.

That said, manufacturing PMI data for September provided some indication that the industrial sector is still holding up towards the end of Q3 but amid ongoing virus concerns, it remains to be seen how things will progress as we move towards the year-end.

European equities see little change to kick start the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tepid tones observed in Europe to start the session

  • Eurostoxx +0.1%
  • Germany DAX -0.1%
  • France CAC 40 +0.1%
  • UK FTSE +0.5%
  • Spain IBEX +0.1%
Elsewhere, US futures are still keeping a little more optimistic with S&P 500 futures up ~0.4% while Nasdaq futures are up ~0.6%. However, once again the bond market and currencies aren’t really singing to that tune.
10-year Treasury yields are down 0.5 bps to 0.722% while in the currencies space, not much is happening besides an extended fall in the pound below 1.2900.
This now puts the focus on support around 1.2875-80 with the 50.0 retracement level of the recent swing move higher @ 1.2879 being tested as well.
In turn, that is propping up UK stocks as we get things going on the session.

Japan August final industrial production +1.0% vs +1.7% m/m prelim

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by METI – 14 October 2020

  • Industrial production -13.8% vs -13.3% y/y prelim
Slight delay in the release by the source. The preliminary release can be found here.
A slightly lower revision sees Japanese factory output improve at a slower pace than initially estimated in August. The recovery in Japan is still very much gradual but at least it is still keeping pace somewhat in Q3 so that should offer some comfort to the BOJ.
But overall conditions are still seen far off compared to pre-virus levels, so there’s that.
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