Archives of “September 30, 2020” day

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Biden: Looks forward to the next debate

  
  Analysis

Hope it is more controlled

Dem VP candidate Biden is speaking for the first time after the debates last night.  He says:
  • He is looking forward to the next debate (so they will go on)
  • In the next debate he wants ability to answer questions
  • Trump’s conduct in debate was national embarrassment
  • His message to Proud Boys is “cease-and-desist”
You gotta wonder what, if anything, they will do to control the debate better.  The next debate will be on October 15 and the last will be on October 22.
The one vice presidential debate between VP Pence and Senator Harris will take place on October 7th

“Who will win the election?” is the wrong question

  
Analysis, Politics
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

“Will there be a clear, uncontested and accepted winner?” is a better question

"Will there be a clear, uncontested and accepted winner?" is a better question
The betting odds of a Biden Presidency ticked higher after yesterday’s debate. I believe Trump’s constant interrupting was at least partly strategic in the hope of tripping up Biden and making him look more like the bumbling caricature he’s tried to construct. By and large that didn’t work and I doubt Trump won over many undecideds.
Given the polling lead, Biden should be a large favourite but he’s stuck at 60/40 because no one can forget Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton, or Brexit.
For markets, I think the outcome itself is less important in the short term than the question of whether or not their will be a clear winner; and whether Trump will ever concede.
BMO’s fixed income team writes today about the tail risk of a contested election but ponders the degree to which the consensus opinion is already fully incorporated into current valuations.
Let’s face it, very few in the market are anticipating a smooth election nor for any potential transition of power to be uneventful. The extent to which November serves to disrupt functioning of the federal government or fuel further civil unrest remains to be seen and, frankly, is the most significant tail risk as we ponder potential outcomes.
I’m open to the ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact trade’ but skeptical that it’s even possible to price in uncertainty in that way. Uncertainty is — by definition — something that persists for an indefinite amount of time. If Trump refuses to concede even on a clear loss, he will still have a strong political base and I expect him to use it to dog Biden for years. It’s a question of how far he’s willing to go and with Trump, the sky is the limit.
The ‘buy the fact’ trade relies on an eventual return to Obama-era levels of civility (which isn’t saying much) but I just don’t think that’s coming.

China reportedly preparing to launch antitrust probe into Google

  
  Analysis

Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter

The antitrust case against Google is said to be proposed by Huawei, with China’s top market regulator submitting the proposed case to the state council for review.
The probe will be looking into allegations that Google has leveraged the dominance of its Android mobile operating system to stifle competition, with a decision on whether to proceed with a formal investigation to possibly come as soon as October.
The sources also add that a potential probe would also look at accusations that Google’s market position could cause “extreme damage” to Chinese companies like Huawei.
Well, this just adds to the ongoing rift between the US and China on tech firms as seen with the Trump administration having put Huawei on a trade blacklist and ordering ByteDance to divest its TikTok application.
So, this is pretty much China firing back amid the recent escalation in tensions.
Google shares are now down 1.8% in pre-market trading, for those interested.

Benjamin Franklin, Advice to a Young Man on the Choice of a Mistress (1745)

  
Analysis, Education

My dear Friend,

I know of no Medicine fit to diminish the violent natural Inclinations you mention; and if I did, I think I should not communicate it to you. Marriage is the proper Remedy. It is the most natural State of Man, and therefore the State in which you are most likely to find solid Happiness. Your Reasons against entering into it at present, appear to me not well-founded. The circumstantial Advantages you have in View by postponing it, are not only uncertain, but they are small in comparison with that of the Thing itself, the being married and settled. It is the Man and Woman united that make the compleat human Being. Separate, she wants his Force of Body and Strength of Reason; he, her Softness, Sensibility and acute Discernment. Together they are more likely to succeed in the World. A single Man has not nearly the Value he would have in that State of Union. He is an incomplete Animal. He resembles the odd Half of a Pair of Scissars. If you get a prudent healthy Wife, your Industry in your Profession, with her good Economy, will be a Fortune sufficient.

But if you will not take this Counsel, and persist in thinking a Commerce with the Sex inevitable, then I repeat my former Advice, that in all your Amours you should prefer old Women to young ones. You call this a Paradox, and demand my Reasons. They are these:

1. Because as they have more Knowledge of the World and their Minds are better stor’d with Observations, their Conversation is more improving and more lastingly agreable.

2. Because when Women cease to be handsome, they study to be good. To maintain their Influence over Men, they supply the Diminution of Beauty by an Augmentation of Utility. They learn to do a 1000 Services small and great, and are the most tender and useful of all Friends when you are sick. Thus they continue amiable. And hence there is hardly such a thing to be found as an old Woman who is not a good Woman.

3. Because there is no hazard of Children, which irregularly produc’d may be attended with much Inconvenience. (more…)

FT says Trump’s back is to the wall – likely to play “even dirtier than normal” in the debate

  
Analysis, Politics

An opinion piece in the Financial Times that gives a heads up for a fiery debate with Biden.

  • Trump’s back is to the wall
  • his taxes … it does increase the likelihood that Cyrus Vance, the New York District Attorney, will bring a criminal prosecution for tax fraud
  • being president gives Mr Trump personal immunity and shields him from his lenders
  • incentive to stay in office is pretty much existential. I don’t believe this has been true of any other president in US history. All of which means he’s likely to play even dirtier than normal in tonight’s debate, which is saying something
FT link is here for more
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The headline and article will upset Trump supporters. A heads up, if you’d like to argue the points please you are more than welcome to do so. Being upset and posting personal attacks on others commenting at the site will not be tolerated. Leave the dirty games to these chaps.
An opinion piece in the Financial Times that gives a heads up for a fiery debate with Biden.

Pelosi, Mnuchin are trying to reach a coronavirus-relief deal before the US election

  
  Analysis

The Wall Street Journal with the update.

House Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spoke for 50 minutes Tuesday morning.
  • The string of conversations suggested the two officials were making a substantive attempt to see whether they could agree on a stimulus package to bolster the country’s health and economic recovery from the pandemic. Mrs. Pelosi told reporters after the meeting Tuesday that she was hopeful she could reach a deal with Mr. Mnuchin this week.
  • “Our conversation was a positive one. We’ll get back together tomorrow to see how we can find common ground,” Mrs. Pelosi said Tuesday on MSNBC.
The journal reported comments from White House chief of staff Mark Meadows
  • “So hopefully we’ll make some progress and find a solution for the American people”
I’d be careful of taking heed of Meadows. Which is probably beside the point as the US Senate has so far been implacably opposed to any further relief packages. No support bill can get through Congress without both houses of Congress voting support.
Journal link for more (may be gated)
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The latest proposal from Pelosi is for a $2.2 trillion (down from $3.5 trillion) package.
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