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CNN polls show Biden up in NC and Wisconsin

Biden up 3 points in NC and a larger nargin in Wisconsin

According to CNN polls, Dem Pres. Candidate Joe Biden leads Pres. Trump in NC and Wisconsin (considered key swing states).
The polls show:
  • Biden 49% Trump 46% in NC
  • Biden 52% Trump 42% in Wisconsin.
According to average poll estimates:
  • Wisconsin shows Biden with an average 6.3% gain
  • NC average poll shows Biden up by 0.3%

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European shares in the day higher led by the UK FTSE 100

UK FTSE 100 leads the way with a 1.6% gain

The major European indices are ending the session higher with varying results. The UK FTSE 100 is leading the way with a 1.6% gain. The German DAX lacks behind with a 0.2% gain. The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, +0.2%
  • France’s CAC, +0.4%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.6%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.85%

Ray Dalio gets the rebound right but trades it wrong

Rough year for Bridgewater

Rough year for Bridgewater
Bloomberg today writes about Bridgewater and note that its Pure Alpha II fund is down 18.6% year-to-date after a flat year last year.
The story details internal turmoil at the firm managing $148 billion. They also highlight a issue that every trader has faced; getting the strategy right and the execution wrong:
This year’s inability to turn big ideas into big returns may be the last straw for some investors after nearly a decade of low-single-digit gains coupled with high fees.The problem, according to those with inside knowledge who asked not to be identified without permission to speak publicly about the firm, is that Bridgewater cut risk in March as the market crashed and was slow to ramp up again — even as the Federal Reserve unleashed an unprecedented support effort. So even though it correctly touted trades such as going long equities, buying gold and betting on the yen against the dollar, it failed to benefit from its own foresight.

Canada existing home sales rise 6.2%

Sales miss estimates but hit a record

Sales miss estimates but hit a record
Canadian August existing home sales rose 6.2% compared to 8.0% but that was still enough to send the measure to an all-time record.
Sales rose 33.5% y/y in August as the market plays catch-up after the spring closure. That was coupled with a 1.7% m/m in price and a 9.4% y/y increase.
Total sales were the sixth highest for any month and the highest ever in August.

US Empire manufacturing index for September 17.0 vs. 6.8 estimate

US Empire manufacturing index for September 2020

The US Empire manufacturing index for September rose by a greater than expected 17.0 verse 6.8 expected. The index was at 3.7 in August. The index reached 17.2 in July only to dip lower in August .   The index level this month  was the 2nd highest level since November 2018. The index is now been positive for 3 consecutive months with 40% respondents reporting that conditions had improved over the month while 23% reported that conditions had worsened.

Empire manufacturing index

  • Manufacturing index 17.0 vs. 3.7 last month
  • new orders index 7.1 vs. -1.7 last month
  • shipments 14.1 vs. 6.7 last month
  • number of employees 2.6 vs. 2.4 last month
  • average workweek 6.7 vs. -6.8 last month
  • unfilled orders -9.4 vs. -14.0 last month
  • prices paid 25.2 vs. 16.0 last month
  • prices receives 6.5 vs. 4.7 last month
  • inventories -3.6 vs. -10.7 last month

(more…)

Moody’s on UK banks outlook

Via reuters

Via reuters
  • UK large domestic bank’s assets quality will take hit from COVID-19
  • UK’s bank capital to remain strong
  • UK domestic banks profitability to recover from 2021
  • Capiltilization will remain robust
  • Negative impact of COVID-19 will impact creditworthiness in line with duration and extent of crisis
  • Capital levels will remain stable over the 2020-2022 period broadly in line with end of 2019 levels.
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