Archives of “June 2020” month
rssUS natural gas prices break 1.50 for the first time since 1999
Natural gas prices crumble

The bull case for natural gas was the US shale drillers would go out of business and that would cut supply. That theory is intact further out the curve with January gas at $2.80 but the front month is not feeling it right now.
Gas is down 10-cents today in a bit of a blowout as it breaks $1.50 for the first time this millennium.
Here’s the curve:

Survivorship Bias
Alternative management seems to have lost its luster.
US Q1 GDP (third reading) -5.0% vs -5.0% expected
The US Q1 2020 GDP data

- Second reading was -5.0%
- Q4 2019 reading was +2.1%
Details:
- Final sales -3.5% vs -3.7% prelim
- Consumer spending -6.8% vs -6.8% prelim
- GDP deflator +1.6% vs +1.6% prelim
- Core PCE +1.7% vs +1.6% exp
- Business investment -6.4% vs -7.9% prelim
- Corporate profits after tax -12.4% vs -14.2% prelim
Inventories cut 1.56 percentage points from GDP.
The market is looking towards Q3 now and it’s on track to be the worst quarter on record
Copper set for a bumper 3Q?
Copper prices set to rise?
The director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group sees the COVID-19 pandemic as paving the way for an ‘age of copper’ in the coming weeks and months. The primary reason for this is because governments are expected to accelerate the path towards an increase in government supported environmental investments. According to Eurasia’s group Henning Gloystein, ‘huge green and digital stimulus programs, especially in Asia and Europe, will create the conditions for a boom in copper demand – electric vehicles, 5G networks, and renewable power generation’.
Copper sitting under $6000
The big round number of $6000 has been containing copper prices. Falling demand for copper prices prompted by the COVID-19 outbreak has kept prices in check for now. Furthermore, the risks of at least isolated pockets of COVID-19 outbreaks remain in place and that could result in further slumps in copper in the near term. However, longer term commodities in general looks set to shine.Gold is in a great place as interest rates are low around the world and more and more investors are seeking the hedging value of gold
China’s top copper traders sees upside for Copper
The director of Maike Metals International Ltd, He Jinbi, said in a phone interview with Bloomberg that, ‘the pandemic will end and we have already seen the worst’. According to He, a long standing veteran after establishing Maike in Western China in 1993, copper could trade between $5800 and $6300 through 3Q. He cited the large levels of monetary support to likely deliver more gains for copper throughout the year. Furthermore, according to He, the recovery in prices have been driven by consumption rather than speculation. A good sign.
Copper is gaining traction with a number of Wall St banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. See price chart below with any pullbacks lower looking suitable for buying dips.
#Gold loves central bank #liquidity…
More info on the Pentagon listing 20 companies aiding Chinese military
News of this earlier: Pentagon list of firms controlled by Chinese military clears the way for further US sanctions
More, via FT:
- Pentagon list of Chinese companies with ties to China’s military
- Including two groups listed on the New York Stock Exchange (China Telecommunications and China Mobile)
- includes a number of state-owned entities involved in fields ranging from nuclear power to aviation
FT link (may be gated)
This can lay the groundwork for further US restrictions on China and these firms.
Navarro says Trump may impose retaliatory tariffs if China is not buying enough US lobsters
Numpty Navarro again . The White House trade adviser who messed up on his comments earlier in the week when he said the trade deal with China was ‘over’. It isn’t.
- Says Trump has directed US Trade Representative to monitor whether China is buying US lobsters under phase 1 trade deal or he may impose reciprocal tariffs
- says US Agriculture department will set up assistance program for US lobster fishermen
- says Trump signed proclamation on Wednesday to protect US lobster industry
Looks like Trump has directed this dunce to focus his effort on overseeing trade in aquatic creatures. Let’s see how he goes.
Trump’s national security adviser speech today, equated China’s Xi to Josef Stalin
Politico with the report, looks like US-Chia relations are going to chill further if this is a widely held view in the administration:
Robert O’Brien, President Trump’s national security advise
- “The Chinese Communist Party is Marxist-Leninist,” he said. “The party General Secretary Xi Jinping sees himself as Josef Stalin’s successor.”
O’Brien faulted both political parties
Link here for the report
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Sheesh, politics. These geopol tensions are a negative for risk trades.