- The objective is not to buy at the cheapest price when the probability of the stock having a huge move may be only so-so.
- The objective is to buy at exactly the right time — the time when the chances are greatest that the stock will succeed and move up significantly.
- I found through our detailed historical studies that a stock purchased at this correct “pivot point,” if all the other fundamental and technical factors of stock selection are in place, will simply not go down 8% (your protective sell rule), and has the greatest chance of moving substantially higher. So ironically, if done correctly, this is your point of least risk.
- On the day the stock breaks out, its trading volume should increase at least 50% above its average daily trading volume.
Archives of “June 2020” month
rssEuropean indices end the day with declines
German DAX, -1.4%
The major European indices are ending the day with declines. A look at the provisional closes shows:
- German DAX, -1.4%
- France’s CAC, -1.5%
- UK’s FTSE 100, -2.1%
- Spain’s Ibex, -0.7%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1.3%
- Portugal PSI 20, -1.63%
In the European debt market, the benchmark yields are moving higher, with investors shunning the risk year countries including Spain, Italy, and Portugal. France 10 year yields remain above the 0.0% level at 0.072%.
Another black eye for the WHO
What a fiasco
One of the reasons the bulls got so excited yesterday about the reopening trade was a comment from Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit.
She said “it’s very rare” to get asymptomatic transmission of coronavirus.
“From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” she said. “We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing … They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”
Today, the WHO is walking that back.
Officials say that they estimate that 16% of people who are asymptomatic can spread that virus and that it could be as high as 40%. They also said they regret that the comment that it’s “very rare”.
The two-day FOMC meeting gets underway
The Fed decision is tomorrow
The only thing worse than a two-day meeting is a two-day meeting on Zoom.
Here are three things to watch for from Powell & Co. After yesterday’s decision to expand the Main Street lending program it’s tough to envision that they will do anything remotely hawkish. The one argument the other way is that they announced the Main Street changes separately so the statement itself (and the overall message) wouldn’t be as dovish. That’s a bit too deep for the Fed, but you never know.
Anyway, maybe Powell is just trying to help us all out: it turns out that negative thinking leads to dementia. So take that bears.
Switzerland is the safest place on Earth #coronavirus #COVID19
Oil price forecast, lower to end of 2020
Via UBS, their WTI Q4 2020 price forecast is $31
Snippets from the report:
The 6 June OPEC+ meeting agreed a first phase extension by a month to July
- Recent additional cuts of ~1.2Mbd from Saudi/UAE/Kuwait/Oman will not extend
- tone on compliance is harder
past 2-3 months has been the rapid fall in US production
- Oil price rebound likely prompts some of this production back in coming months and
next OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 1 December
- monthly JMMC meetings will monitor market developments and OPEC+ compliance behaviour, which has helped with the price rebound.
Libya has halted oil production at an oilfield due to armed incursion
A statement from Libya’s National Oil Corp says workers have been told to stop due to an armed force entering the El Sharara oilfield
El Sharara oil field is located in Murzuq Desert
- Libya’s largest oil field
- only resumed production on Sunday
I’m gonna have to trust Google maps is correct on this location. The label could see ‘free ice creams’ for all I know.
Iraq’s oil minister says fully committed to the OPEC+ oil output cut deal
Statement from Iraq’s energy ministry, the oil minister assuring the country’s commitment to the fresh deal – assurance made to the Saudi energy minister
US stocks finish at the highs of the day as the euphoria continues
The gains continue as the S&P 500 erases the losses for the year
- S&P 500 up 38 points, or 1.2%, to 3232
- DJIA up 445 points, or 1.65%, to 27,512
- Nasdaq up 110 points, or 1.1%, to 9924
The expanding the Main Street program is another sign that they’re not even thinking about taking away the punch bowl. Powell’s pedal is on the floor and equity markets are falling in love.
What’s utterly crazy is that retail has led this rally with hedge funds on the sidelines. Now they’re forced to FOMO.
With the S&P 500 now in positive territory for the year, the next stop is the February all-time high near 3400.
Thought For A Day
