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Why OPEC+ will cut even without US participation

You don’t need $20 oil to kill shale

There’s a narrative emerging around OPEC+ and shale: The mainstream thinking is that Russia and Saudi Arabia want to drive crude prices lower to kill US frackers.
I don’t think it’s correct, or at least not wholly correct.
The reality is that shale didn’t make any money in 2019 at $55 oil. Even at that price, it was on its way to mass insolvencies, albeit at a slower pace. I’ve been writing about the bust in shale for more than a year.
All this talk that OPEC+ wont’ cut without the US is a bluff. Why? Because shale is still going bust at $30-$40 oil.

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Trump says if oil price stays the way it is he would do very substantial tariffs

Oil remarks from US President Trump.

The oil price has plunged at the opening to this week’s trade after weekend news and comments. Trump’s latest in that headline cutting a few cents out of it again.
  • if oil price stays the way it is he would do very substantial tariffs
  • does not think he will need to use tariffs in oil fight
(On that second remark, note that Trump has said a few times from late last week that expects Russia and Saudi to cut production, he’s mentioned by 10m barrels a day, perhaps 15m. Noter also though that the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for today has been put off to April 9. )
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