Archives of “April 2020” month

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Iran projectile launch – US says its a military satellite put into orbit

  
  Analysis

CNN with the report that Iran has successfully launched a military satellite into orbit for the first time

  • citing two US Defense Department officials
More:
  • the country’s space program utilizes the same technology that would be needed to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile, which would increase Tehran’s capability to strike enemy targets.
  • US Space Command is tracking two objects in orbit that were launched from within Iran, according to one of the officials
  • One is a rocket body and the other is assessed to be the satellite. 
CNN with the report that Iran has successfully launched a military satellite into orbit for the first time US Space Command is tracking two objects in orbit that were launched from within Iran, according to one of the officials. One is a rocket body and the other is assessed to be the satellite. The rocket body may still be in orbit because the Iranian program is not sophisticated enough to have perfected re-entry into the atmosphere.Earlier on Wednesday, Gen. John Hyten, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the US was tracking the launch closely but declined to confirm the satellite had reached orbit.

Oil – US investigating whether traders profited from ‘tips’ on Russia / OPEC talks

  
Analysis, Crude

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is said to be investigating trades placed to benefit from oil price movement surrounding the OPEC+ talks last month.

Bloomberg report citing two unnamed people “with direct knowledge of the matter.”
CFTC inquiry is focused on whether Russia’s stance with OPEC+ leaked to market participants ahead of time. ‘d be shocked if they hadn’t.
The info is based off these unnamed sources, so bear that in mind:
  • traders being investigated are not Russian government officials
  • but the entities placing the trades are said to employ people ‘with links to the Kremlin’
  • the transactions are in instruments that had expired before the price drop into negative this week
UK FCA (Financial Conduct Authority  – regulator for financial markets in the UK) also investigating.
—-
Look … this is a rhetorical question, but feel free to take it up in the comments if you wish. Isn’t this sort of behaviour the exact thing that technical analysis is supposed to pick up? Or is technical analysis no longer of any use (check this out)?
oil russia

US Indices have a recovery day. Broad indices up over 2.2%.

  
Analysis, US Market

The Dow 30 rises by 1.96%.

The US major indices have stopped the 2 day decline with a recovery day. The NASDAQ index closed above its 200 day moving average and had its best day since April 14. All 11 sectors of the S&P rose. The Dow industrial average lined with a gain of 1.96%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index up 62.14 points or 2.27% at 2798.70
  • NASDAQ index up 232.15 points or 2.81% at 8495.37
  • Dow rose 456.94 points or 1.99% at 23475.83.
Below are the percentage ranges for each of the major indices in North America and Europe:
The Dow 30 rises by 1.96%.

At least 25,000 more people have died from COVID-19 than reported – NYT

  
  Analysis

Interesting analysis

Reporters at the New York Times have dived deep into historical death numbers and compared them to current trends and it paints a very clear picture of widespread under-counting globally.
For instance:
In March, the Indonesian government attributed 84 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 1,000 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries that month, according to data from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries. (The data was first reported by Reuters).
The official global count right now is about 165,000 but the real number is higher. There’s no conspiracy here but the true rate of mortality is one of the important indicators in determining when economies can reopen.
Interesting analysis

Trump instructs navy to destroy Iranian gunboats if they harass US ships

  
  Analysis

Trump ramps up the rhetoric

Tweet from Trump:
I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
I don’t think he’s referring to harassing navy ships here but US ships in general. The thing is, how many ships are flying a US flag in the Strait of Hormuz? I imagine this is all posturing but this tweet haunts me:
Trump ramps up the rhetoric

IEA’s Birol: OPEC+ may want to consider further output cuts

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA chief Fatih Birol is speaking to Bloomberg

  • It may be advisable for OPEC+ to cut as soon as possible
That’s certainly a thought but given how reluctant the Saudis and Russians were to overstep their boundaries with the latest deal, I don’t think we’ll get one any time soon.
And even if we do, it is likely to be a token one that will fall way short of addressing the supply glut in the market right now.
WTI is down by just over 2% on the day now, around $11.30.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.74% at 19,137.95

  
Analysis, Global Indices

A softer day for Japanese stocks but not as bad as it could have been

Nikkei 22-04

Asian equities are more mixed in trading today, performing better in afternoon trade as US futures also race a little higher ahead of European trading.

The Hang Seng is up by 0.2% while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.4% currently, as S&P 500 futures gain by about 0.7% to session highs.
In the currencies space, this is helping a little with the aussie as AUD/USD runs to 0.6320 but the yen is also still holding its ground in general thus far.
Elsewhere, Treasuries are still treading with caution as 10-year yields are down by 1.7 bps to around 0.55% as we begin the morning in Europe.
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