Archives of “April 22, 2020” day

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At least 25,000 more people have died from COVID-19 than reported – NYT

  
  Analysis

Interesting analysis

Reporters at the New York Times have dived deep into historical death numbers and compared them to current trends and it paints a very clear picture of widespread under-counting globally.
For instance:
In March, the Indonesian government attributed 84 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 1,000 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries that month, according to data from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries. (The data was first reported by Reuters).
The official global count right now is about 165,000 but the real number is higher. There’s no conspiracy here but the true rate of mortality is one of the important indicators in determining when economies can reopen.
Interesting analysis

Trump instructs navy to destroy Iranian gunboats if they harass US ships

  
  Analysis

Trump ramps up the rhetoric

Tweet from Trump:
I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea.
I don’t think he’s referring to harassing navy ships here but US ships in general. The thing is, how many ships are flying a US flag in the Strait of Hormuz? I imagine this is all posturing but this tweet haunts me:
Trump ramps up the rhetoric

IEA’s Birol: OPEC+ may want to consider further output cuts

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA chief Fatih Birol is speaking to Bloomberg

  • It may be advisable for OPEC+ to cut as soon as possible
That’s certainly a thought but given how reluctant the Saudis and Russians were to overstep their boundaries with the latest deal, I don’t think we’ll get one any time soon.
And even if we do, it is likely to be a token one that will fall way short of addressing the supply glut in the market right now.
WTI is down by just over 2% on the day now, around $11.30.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.74% at 19,137.95

  
Analysis, Global Indices

A softer day for Japanese stocks but not as bad as it could have been

Nikkei 22-04

Asian equities are more mixed in trading today, performing better in afternoon trade as US futures also race a little higher ahead of European trading.

The Hang Seng is up by 0.2% while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.4% currently, as S&P 500 futures gain by about 0.7% to session highs.
In the currencies space, this is helping a little with the aussie as AUD/USD runs to 0.6320 but the yen is also still holding its ground in general thus far.
Elsewhere, Treasuries are still treading with caution as 10-year yields are down by 1.7 bps to around 0.55% as we begin the morning in Europe.

Hong Kong oil ETF drops nearly 50% in a day

  
  Analysis

Samsung S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF has lost 45% in HK today

  • the biggest decline & to its the lowest level since trading began in May 2016
Samsung Asset Management (Hong Kong) manages the fund
  • fund will sell its entire holdings of June oil contracts and buy September contracts.
  • warned that in a “worst case scenario,” the net asset value of the fund may drop to zero and investors may suffer “a total loss” of their investments
Samsung S&P GSCI Crude Oil ER Futures ETF has lost 45% in HK today
If you’d like to check out the picture in Singapore, FT have this:
  • The collapse of one of Singapore’s biggest oil traders has raised the prospect of a severe liquidity crunch in the city-state’s under-pressure commodities sector, threatening a wave of defaults and bankruptcies.

More on oil – grim outlook

  
  Analysis
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Scanning across some notes on OPEC and crude, some snippets … not optimistic:

Via RBC:
  • OPEC+ is apparently in crisis management mode
  • We think OPEC+ may make more headway by sharpening its compliance messaging, particularly around perennial underperformers, most notably Russia.
  • we think Saudi Arabia may be amenable to dropping production even further
  • none of these measures will arrest the immediate demand destruction and storage saturation problems that are weighing so heavily, particularly on US prices, they could potentially help ensure a better back half of the year if the COVID-19 crisis is contained
(Bolding above is mine)
Via TD:
  • Although we don’t expect negative prices to remain  …  the imbalance in the offer vs. demand and storage capacity issues could see a repeat of this issue.
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