jobless claims
Archives of “April 18, 2020” day
rssChina is now blaming black people for the roni
The differential between the spot gold price and the futures market.
Not so ‘risk on’ in FX: The yen is the top performer this week, the kiwi lagged
Bonds also not sending positive signals
US stocks are higher today and up on the week but the FX and bond market isn’t sending the same signal. US 5-year note yields matched the March low this week at just 0.32%. In FX, the weekly leaderboard looks like this:
Looking at the NZD/JPY chart, what stands out is that even with the weakness this week, it only covers a portion of the gain last week. In the bigger picture, we’re in a retracement phase but have stalled out at the 50% area or at the August low, which is now resistance.
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Few heroes in this market
Forex futures positioning data for the week ending April 14, 2020:
- EUR long 87K vs 80K long last week. Longs increased by 7k
- GBP long 3K vs 4K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
- JPY long 22K vs 22K long last week. Unchanged
- CHF long 5K vs 6K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
- AUD short 36k vs 35K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
- NZD short 15K vs 14K short last week. Unchanged
- CAD short 24k vs 24K short last week. Unchanged
What’s shocking to me is how little appetite there is to take positions right now. Market participants are leaving the markets to the whims of flows.
Aside from that, the big and inexplicable long position in the euro. I question if that’s truly a non-commercial position.
US stocks finish with a flourish to cap another week of gains
US stocks finish near the highs
Stocks sagged just as the final hour of trading got underway but rallied late and the S&P 500 finished up 2.6% and this time it wasn’t tech leading the way. On the week, the index gained 3.0% on the heels of last week’s massive jump.
Today’s rally rose above the 50-day moving average but the key level on my chart is the 61.8% retracement of the virus decline. That’s at 2934.
Thought For A Day
This is going to be a desk fixture of mine for the next five years.
US dollar rises after Fed halves daily purchases for next week
Fed slows the pace of QE
The Fed announced it will buy $15B a day in bonds next week compared to $30B this week.
The response in the Treasury market has been swift with US 5-years yields rising to 0.35% from 0.33%.
That’s spilled over into the US dollar, which is making a small move higher across the board.
Here’s the Fed’s balance sheet:
China stays China
