Fitch says China economic activity is to remain weak in 1H 2020
- Projects China’s fiscal deficit to rise to 8% of GDP this year (2019 was 5.8%)
- Says that much of China’s coronavirus policy response is still pending
I would take the headline estimate with a pinch of salt because I don’t think we will ever get the true figure of what China’s economic growth will be this year.
The fact that we may not get the usual NPC meeting to decide on the target shows that China may not present one to the world but instead focus on outlining more subjective economic achievements instead.
But we all know that whatever the case is, the economic damage is severe and will take a long time to recover. The fall in global demand because of shutdowns everywhere else will just compound more economic worries for China and also other countries this year.