Archives of “April 1, 2020” day

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Not even the greatest hedge fund in history dodged the rout in March

  
Analysis, Education
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two Renaissance Technologies funds were down 17% and 13%, respectively

Two Renaissance Technologies funds were down 17% and 13%, respectively
Renaissance Technologies is undoubtedly the greatest money-making machine in history.
The quant-based Medallion fund at Renaissance is unparalleled. It gained 55.9% when it turned the corner in 1990 and hasn’t stopped since. The fund founded by Jim Simons has generated average returns of 66%, racking up gains of $100 billion.
The New York Post today doesn’t report on the Medallion Fund, which is only open to employees now. But it reports that Renaissance’s Institutional Equities Fund fell 17% in March and the Institutional Diversified Alpha fund fell 13%.
Overall Renaissance manages $130 bilion.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 4.50% at 18,065.41

  
Analysis, Global Indices

A rough day for Japanese stocks, particularly in the closing hour

Nikkei 01-04

Asian equities have turned more sour as the risk mood softens ahead of European trading today. It is a new month and new quarter, so fresh flows and sentiment will be evident after talk of re-balancing action over the past week.

Concerns of the virus outbreak becoming more widespread in Japan and the continued economic fallout globally is stoking fears among investors it seems.

The Hang Seng is down by over 2% while Chinese equities have also seen earlier gains – largely on the back of stimulus hopes – fade with the Shanghai Composite also down at the lows now, falling by 0.3% going into the final hour of trading.
US futures are down by over 3% currently and that is setting a bit of a softer tone to start the session. USD/JPY is keeping a little lower at 107.36 as such.

BOJ Tankan, business sentiment plummets

  
Analysis, Economy

The Tankan is a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan

Woeful results, hitting multi year lows from manufacturers and non-manufacturers alike
  • Large manufacturers index hits its lowest since March of 2013 at -8
  • Large non-manufacturers index falls to its lowest reading since March 2013 at +8
  • Small non-manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for 2 straight quarters, hit worst level since December 2014, index at -1
  • Small manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for 5th straight quarter, hit worst level since March 2013, index at -15

As part of the survey firms are asked on their outlook for coming months, also a bleak picture, as you’d expect given the virus outbreak impact:

  • big manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -11
  • big non-manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -1

More:

  • big firms see capex +1.8% this fiscal year
  • small firms see capex -11.7%

USDJPY has the largest trading range since November 2016

  
Analysis, Forex
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A trading range of 1052 pips

The USDJPY is finishing up a month where the low to high trading range has totaled 1052 pips.  That is the 3rd highest range going back 10 years and the highs in trading range since November 2016 (US election month).   The total range for 2019 was 939 pips. So one month, the range was bigger than one year.
A trading range of 1052 pips
Looking at the monthly chart above, the high for the month stalled near the high from last month and a trend line connecting the 2017 high and the high from February. That trend line cuts across at 112.06. The high for the month reached 111.71. Stay below, helped put a stall in the rallly.  In the new month that trend line will cut across at 111.89, and a move above will be needed to give buyers more upside confidence.
On the downside this month, the price moved below the 100 month (at 105.55) and 200 month MA (at 104.06) after testing the MA twice in 2019 and bouncing.  In 2018, there was two intra-month dips below the MA, but no closes below that MA level.
This month will also not close below the 200 month MA again (it has not closed below the MA since October 2016), but it did seriously break the MA in the month.  The sellers had their shot to send the pair lower and weaken the technical bias from a longer term perspective, but they failed.
In the new month, it will take a move back below those monthly moving averages to hurt the longer term technical picture.
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