Archives of “January 2020” month

rss

Saudi energy minister says OPEC+ will only take decision on oil output cuts in March

  
Analysis, Crude

Adds that it is too early to talk about the decision at this point in time

With the oil market “normalising” after recent US-Iran geopolitical tensions, there is a sense that we may have probably seen the peak for oil prices this year already.

The market continues to be well supplied and unless global growth/demand improves significantly over the coming quarters, it is hard to see a natural progression towards anything higher than $70 just off supply and demand alone.
In that sense, OPEC+ will definitely have to keep their current quotas to maintain any form of a floor in oil prices for the rest of the year at least.

German 2019 budget surplus reportedly in low two-digit billions of euros

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #

Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper reports

Germany

The paper says that Germany generated a federal budget surplus in the low two-digit billions of euros with higher-than-expected tax revenues offset by lower-than-expected interest payment, without identifying the source of its information.

For some context, that should see the figure come just below the 2018 figure of €11.2 billion. The actual figure will be published later today.
This is a bit of a setback for those hoping for Germany to loosen the purse strings a little as such a low surplus will give more reason for lawmakers to not do so. That said, it’s not like those hopes were that high to begin with anyway.

Yen crosses making the most of the good feels over the phase 1 trade deal

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #

Positive sentiment is likely to persist into the signing of the US-China phase one trade deal on Wednesday January 15

USD/JPY is having an OK sort of session, on approach to its Friday high above 109.65. Yen crosses are generally higher also, AUD/USD is putting in some consolidation above 0.6900, kiwi also is near its recent highs and EUR is about to test its Friday high also. All these were helped along by some USD weakness on Friday on that disappointing NFP result.
Meanwhile the offshore Chinese yuan is pushing higher agisnt the USD also, benefitting also from phase1-itis.
Having said all this, the ranges here are not large for the majors, it is Asian after all. Its also a holiday in Japan today (markets closed).

Bundesbank official says euro zone GDP growth expected at 1.1% in 2020

  
Analysis, Economy

An official of the German central bank speaking in Hong Kong

  • pace of economic expansion in euro area expected to stabilise in 2020

Reuters with the headlines. Nothing further at this stage.

EZ growth has been lacklustre, 1.1% is not much better. It was 1.2% last year!
Comments from BUBA executive board member Burkhard Balz.(responsible for payments & settlements systems).

Forecasts for China GDP due this week (spoiler, full year 2019 at 6.1%)

  
Analysis, Economy

Bank of Communications economist (via Global Times):

2019 6.1%
Q4 6 % (compares with the same in Q3(
Slowdown in 2019 due to (the usual suspects follow …)
  • uncertainties in the world market
  • domestic factors, such as “the declining growth of manufacturing, labor-intensive and high-energy consumption industries as well as the country’s economic structural adjustment.”
China Q4 GDP is due on the 17th

The only woman from Iran to win an Olympic medal has defected from the country

  
Analysis, Politics
#  #  #  #  #

Kimia Alizadeh issued a statement, accusing the government of Iran of “hypocrisy,” “injustice” and oppressing women while using them as political tools.

The Washington Post has more on the news here.
Alizadeh joins many others in defecting. I wonder how the news will be played in Iran, if at all? Protests have been triggered by the shooting down of the civilian airplane last week killing 176 people, many of them Iranians.
Kimia Alizadeh issued a statement, accusing the government of Iran of "hypocrisy," "injustice" and oppressing women while using them as political tools.
Go to top