Archives of “December 2019” month

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What’s on tap for traders next week

  
  Analysis

FOMC decision.  UK election

The big events for the next week include the FOMC rate decision (no change expected – on Wednesday) and the UK election (on Thursday).
Monday:
  • China Trade Balance.
Tuesday:
  • RBA Gov. Lowe speaks.  5:05 PM ET/2205 GMT
  • UK GDP. 4:30 AM ET/0930 GMT
Wednesday:
  • US CPI, 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT Est 0.2%
  • Core CPI Est 0.2%
  • FOMC rate decision.  2 PM ET/1900 GMT.  No change estimate
Thursday:
  • UK Elections
  • SNB rate decision.  No change expected.  4 AM ET/0900 GMT.
  • ECB rate decsion.  7:45 AM ET/1245 GMT.
  • ECB Press Conference.  First press conference for Christine Lagarde.  8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT
  • BOC Gov Poloz speaks.  12:30 ET/1730 GMT
Friday:
  • US Retail Sale.  8:30 AM ET/1300 GMT.  Est 0.4%. Core Retail Sales. Est 0.4%

US stocks close with solid gains. S&P up on the week. Dow and Nasdaq show modest declines

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow Jones rises by 1.17%

The major indices are closing with solid gains on the day after strong job gains. The Dow industrial average leads the way with a gain of over 1.2%. The S&P index and NASDAQ index rose by about 0.9% to 1.0%.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index rose 28.42 points or 0.91% at 3145.85. The high price reached 3150.60. The low extended to 3134.62
  • NASDAQ index rose 85.826 points or 1.0%. The high price reached 8665.44. The low extended to 8630.57
  • Dow industrial average rose 336.90 points or 1.22% at 28014.69. The high price reached 28035.85. The low price extended to 27839.68
For the week, the S&P index squeaked out a small gain while the NASDAQ and Dow both ended with modest losses. The changes for the week are showing:
  • S&P index, +0.16%
  • NASDAQ index, -0.10%
  • Dow industrial average, -0.13%

European indices down on the week but up today

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Major indices like a strong US and hopes for China US progress

The major European indices are ending the the week mostly lower. However, they are higher in trading today. Markets are liking the strong US job growth (good for global growth) and hopes that US, China trade progress can continue.

The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, +0.88%
  • France’s CAC, +1.08%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.45%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.60%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.9%
For the week, apart from the Spain’s Ibex, the major indices are ending with declines:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC -0.7%
  • UK’s FTSE MIB -1.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%
In the benchmark 10 year notes today, the yields are mixed. Germany France yields are marginally higher. UK Italy and Portugal yields are marginally lower. And Spanish yields are unchanged on the day.
European benchmark yields are mixed today
A snapshot of other markets as London/European traders look to exit are showing:
  • Spot gold down – $-16.60 or -1.12% at $1459.40. The stronger US job report has strengthened the US dollar and helped to send go price is to the downside
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.74 or 1.27% at $59.17. After muddling along near unchanged levels, the prospects for stronger growth and OPEC production cuts has the contract moving back to the upside
In the US stock market, the major indices trade near high levels for the day:
  • S&P index up 32.37 points or 1.04% at 3149.86
  • NASDAQ index up 84.6 points or 0.99% at 8655.34
  • Dow is up 335 points or 1.21% at 28012
In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher despite the strong jobs report (off high levels).
US yields are higher on the day
Forex markets, the USD is stronger but remains lower vs the NZD and the JPY.  The CAD is the weakest after their employment report showed net job losses at the highest since 2009 and a spike higher and the unemployment rate to 5.9% from 5.5%.

US Non-farm payroll for November 266K vs 180K estimate

  
  Analysis

US nonfarm payroll for November 2019

US nonfarm payroll surges by 266K
  • Change nonfarm payroll 266K versus 180 K estimate
  • 2 month payroll net revision +41K
  • Change in private payroll 254K versus 178K estimate
  • Manufacturing payroll 54K versus 40K estimate
  • Unemployment rate 3.5% versus 3.6% estimate
  • Average hourly earnings MoM 0.2% versus 0.3% estimate
  • Average hourly earnings YoY 3.1% versus 3.0% estimate
  • Average weekly hours 34.4 versus 34.4 estimate
  • Llabor force participation rate 63.2% versus 63.3% last
  • Underemployment rate 6.9% versus 7% last
The data blows away the estimates.  The dollar has moved sharply higher with the dollar yen extending above its 100 hour moving average at 108.82 from a prerelease level  108.54
In other markets,
  • spot gold is trading down $8.40 or -0.56% at $1467.70
  • WTI crude oil futures are not impressed. They still trade OPEC with a move down by $0.59 or -1% at $57.84
in the US stock market the major indices have moved higher:
  • Dow, +138 points
  • S&P index up 15 points
  • NASDAQ index up 46 point
US yields have moved higher with the 10 year up 3.3 basis points. The 2 year is up the most. It has risen by 4 basis points as the Fed is most definitely on hold.
US yields are rising after the stronger US employment report
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