Archives of “October 2019” month

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Major indices in the US close lower

  
Analysis, US Market

S&P makes a new intraday high but can’t keep gains

The major US indices in the US are closing lower on the day. The S&P index traded to a new intraday all-time high price at 3047.87, but backed off into the close. The NASDAQ composite index was the hardest said today falling by around -0.60% on the day
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed down -2.6 points or -0.08% at 3036.84
  • The NASDAQ index fell -49.133 points or -0.59% at 8276.85
  • The Dow Jones industrial average fell -19.91 points or -0.07% at 27070.83

Apple and Facebook earnings will be released after the close today. Apple fell by -2.31% today after closing at an all-time record high yesterday. Facebook was a little changed today.

Major European indices end the session with mixed results

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Provisional closes for October 29, 2019

the major European stock indices are ending the session with mixed results.
  • German DAX, unchanged
  • France’s CAC, +0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged
In  the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending lower on the day with declines between -0.8 basis points and -0.25 basis points

Provisional closes for October 29, 2019_
In other markets as London traders look to exit are showing:

  • Spot gold, $-3.10 or -0.21% at $1489.30. That is up from the intraday low of $1483.60, but below its high at $1495.34
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading near unchanged levels at $55.79.  The high reached $55.88. The low waas down at $54.61
In the US stock market, the markets are mixed:
  • The S&P index is up 4.74 points or 0.16% at 3044.30.  A close higher would be a new record close for the index. The high today at 3047.87 represents and all-time new intraday high for the index
  • The NASDAQ index remains in the red at -23.34 points or -0.28% at 8302.60. The high reached 8319.29. The low extended to 8275.68
  • The Dow is up 35 points or 0.13% 27125
IN the US debt market, the yield changes across the yield curve are minimal with changes of -0.3 bps to -0.9 bps across the curve.
US yields are marginally lower

Cable climbs to four-day high

  
Analysis, Forex

The pound breaks yesterday’s high

GBPUSD 1 hour
Cable is up 14 pips to 1.2877 in a rally to the best levels since October 24. The latest leg higher hasn’t been driven by any fresh headline that I’m seeing.
It’s increasingly clear that the UK is going to the polls and with Conservatives leading by 12 points, it’s fair to expect a strong Conservative majority that can pass the latest Withdrawal deal and will then be in a solid spot to stimulate the economy and negotiate the future relationship smoothly.
It all sounds very tidy but this is the UK and nothing has been easy in the past 5 years. How will the market react when there is invariably a bump (probably temporary) in Labour’s polling numbers?
That’s the risk. And a hung parliament would be an absolute nightmare.
So the likelihood is a positive outcome but the tail risks are high. But with the pound trading below 1.29 that’s a positive risk-reward so long as you’re willing to ride the rollercoaster through Dec 9 or Dec 12 or whatever day they finally decide on.

Oil sinks but natural gas jumps for the second day

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil under pressure

Oil is lower for the second day after Genscape reported that inventories at Cushing rose last week. API data is due late today and EIA data tomorrow.
There is talk about swelling inventories globally along with modest demand growth. Along with that comes with speculation that OPEC may need to cut production further in December. That’s a longshot. Instead, OPEC may try to squeeze a few of the members that are overproducing into complying with quotas.
Technically, the rally in oil stalled right around the 50% retracement of the Saudi spike.
Oil under pressure
Meanwhile, forecasts for colder weather in the US continue to boost natural gas prices. The front month surged yesterday and is up another 4.5% today.
I highlighted an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern yesterday with a target of $2.60. We’re almost there.

Natural gas

Largest private US coal miner goes bankrupt

  
  Analysis

Murray Energy files for Chapter 11

Murray Energy files for Chapter 11
Not even the President can re-write the rules of economics.
Murray Energy is the largest underground coal miner in the US and owner Robert Murray was a big donor to the Trump campaign. The President repeatedly touted that he was going to bring back ‘beautiful, clean coal’ but the company has continued to struggle.
The company employs 7000 people and will continue to operate in a restructuring of more than $2.7 billion of debt after a fresh $350m loan. Along with the parent company, nearly 100 affiliates also filed for Chapter 11.
Aside from the company’s debt load, it’s main problem is that power plants are increasingly turning to renewables and natural gas as the economics off both — along with the environmental advantages — change the playing field.
It doesn’t sound like the pensioners are going to make out very well in this deal:
coal pensioners

USDJPY fails on move above 200 day MA today

  
Analysis, Forex

Tests old trend line support

The USDJPY failed on an earlier peek above its 200 day MA at 109.031 today. The high price traded above and reached a high of 109.063 before reversing lower.  The price is trading back below the highs from October 15 and October 17 at 108.89-93 currently and down testing an old trend line at 108.89.
Tests old trend line support trend line on the hourly chart.
Admittedly, the price last week and this week did move below that old trend line on the 4-hour chart above, but those breaks did fail too.  So if the price is able to extend below the trend line, the price will need to show some downside momentum that keeps the price below that line.
Drilling down to the 5 minute chart below, the look above the 200 day MA (see green line overlay at 109.03) was for less than a single 5 minute bar. The last two price runs higher have tested the 200 bar MA (green line) and the 100 bar MA (blue line) That keeps the bears intraday more in control.   Stay below keeps the sellers more in control.
The 5 minute chart is tilting lower

Yields are marginally lower. The US stocks are also marginally lower.

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