Cable is up 14 pips to 1.2877 in a rally to the best levels since October 24. The latest leg higher hasn’t been driven by any fresh headline that I’m seeing.

It’s increasingly clear that the UK is going to the polls and with Conservatives leading by 12 points, it’s fair to expect a strong Conservative majority that can pass the latest Withdrawal deal and will then be in a solid spot to stimulate the economy and negotiate the future relationship smoothly.

It all sounds very tidy but this is the UK and nothing has been easy in the past 5 years. How will the market react when there is invariably a bump (probably temporary) in Labour’s polling numbers?

That’s the risk. And a hung parliament would be an absolute nightmare.

So the likelihood is a positive outcome but the tail risks are high. But with the pound trading below 1.29 that’s a positive risk-reward so long as you’re willing to ride the rollercoaster through Dec 9 or Dec 12 or whatever day they finally decide on.