The latest growth estimates
The prior estimates were in July and at that time they were downgraded from April.
- Prior was 3.2%
- 2020 growth to 3.4% from 3.5%
- US growth to 2.4% from 2.6%
- US 2020 to 2.1% from 1.9%
- Cuts 2019 China forecast to 6.1% from 6.2%
- Cuts 2020 China to 5.8% from 6.0%
- US-China trade tensions will cumulatively reduce global growth by 0.8% by 2020
- Risks skewed to the downside due to uncertainty over trade tensions, Brexit, declines in risk appetite and manufacturing weakness
- Eurozone 2019 1.2% vs 1.3%
- Eurozone 2020 1.4% vs 1.6%
- Germany 2019 1.2% vs 1.7%
- India 2019 6.1% vs 7.0%
- LatAm 2019 0.2% vs 0.6%
- LatAm 2020 1.8% vs 2.3%
- World trade volume 1.1% vs 2.5%
The IMF warned last week that it was going to cut global growth so this isn’t a surprise but we might have expected to see 3.1%.
They estimate that the trade war could cause China’s GDP to fall by 2.0% in the short term and cut 0.6% from US GDP.
If anything, the 2020 numbers look optimistic.