October 9, 2019 - Financial Occultist

In case you missed out on his remarks from yesterday:

For today, he is scheduled to speak at around 1430 GMT (agenda says it is at 1500 GMT though) as he participates in a roundtable session in a Fed Listens event in Missouri.

The event is hosted by the Kansas City Fed so Powell will be joined by Esther George in the discussion, where we will be hearing a range of economic issues, such as labor market conditions, local banking, community development challenges and other topics.

In any case, I wouldn’t expect Powell to deviate from his stance yesterday as he continues to keep all options on the table ahead of the next Fed meeting.

The FOMC meeting minutes release later today as well as US CPI data and US-China trade talks later this week will be more impactful for the dollar and risk in my view.

EU official dismisses earlier report, says “no bold new offer is coming”

09-Oct-19 05:56 pm

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

Reuters reports, citing an EU official on the matter

Adds that EU diplomats have said that the report is “not true” and have dismissed it as “spin” amid ongoing Brexit negotiations. The Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, Jennifer Rankin, adds to the above claim with a tweet earlier:

“The EU is *not* about to make a big bold offer to allow Stormont to exit part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, in order to break the Brexit deadlock I hear from EU sources.”

Not like it matters all too much now after we have heard from the DUP on the matter

China reportedly said to propose increased agricultural purchases to ease trade war

09-Oct-19 05:55 pm

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

China is said to propose to purchase an extra $10 mln tonnes of US soybeans

This, in an effort to seek a partial/interim agreement in exchange for the US to put off a new round of tariffs which are due on 15 October, according to the Financial Times.

The report cites people briefed on ongoing negotiations, adds that the Chinese “are ready to de-escalate” and that “Liu He is coming with real offers, it’s not an empty visit”.

The above just adds to the Bloomberg report here but it is continuing to keep risk assets in a good mood for the time being.

Treasury yields are markedly higher with 10-year yields now up by nearly 3 bps to 1.558% while US futures are up by 1% as we move towards European midday.

China reportedly may restrict visas for US visitors with anti-China links

09-Oct-19 01:39 pm

Anirudh Sethi

Reuters reports

The report cites people with knowledge of the proposed curbs, saying that China is planning tighter visa restrictions for US nationals with ties to anti-China groups.

The proposed move is said to be in the works “for months” already but you can’t help but think that the timing of this leak is a bit ‘convenient’ after US actions this week.

The dollar has inched lower over the past few minutes with cable recovering from 1.2200 to 1.2235 while EUR/USD is up to session highs of 1.0983 currently.

I don’t see this report as being a significant game changer ahead of trade talks but perhaps it is leading to some jitters among weak hands in what has been a quiet session so far.