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India’s worst-kept secrets, told by Rajan

Raghuram RajanFormer Reserve Bank of India governor Raghuram Rajan has said that people in authority have to tolerate criticism and that any move to suppress it “is a sure fire recipe for policy mistakes”.

“What makes India strong is its diversity, debate and tolerance. What makes it weak is narrow-mindedness, obscurantism and divisiveness,” Rajan said in a long LinkedIn post on Monday, two days ahead of the 150th birth anniversary of the Father of the Nation.

He said governments that suppress public criticism do themselves a gross disservice.

“If every critic gets a phone call from a government functionary asking them to back off, or gets targeted by the ruling party’s troll army, many will tone down their criticism. The government will then live in a pleasant make-believe environment, until the harsh truth can no longer be denied,” he said.

“Undoubtedly, some of the criticism, including in the press, is ill-informed, motivated, and descends into ad-hominem personal attacks. I have certainly had my share of those in past jobs. However, suppressing criticism is a sure fire recipe for policy mistakes,” he added.

Last week, the Narendra Modi government had removed Rathin Roy and Shamika Ravi from the economic advisory council to the Prime Minister. Both had criticised some of the government’s policies. (more…)

Chance of a Brexit deal by end of October low, chance of hard Brexit by end January up – thus sell GBP

The Brexit headline to the post is the view from JP Morgan, in a nutshell

  • Says GBP is no longer as cheap
  • JPM like short GBP, particularly against CHF
  • chance of end October Brexit deal are very low
  • chance of a hard Brexit by January have increased
  • BOE Saunders’s tilt to dovish supports short GBP view
  • Add these together and “we view risks to GBP tilted to the downside”
JPMorgan stop at 1.2450
Hourly candles GBPCHF:
The Brexit headline to the post is the view from JP Morgan, in a nutshell

US stocks wrap up a solid month and quarter with gains

It’s the final trading day of the month and the quarter

Today’s changes:
  • S&P 500 +0.50%
  • DJIA +0.36%
  • Nasdaq +0.75%
On the month:
  • S&P 500 +1.7%
  • DJIA +1.9%
  • Nasdaq +0.5%
On the quarter
  • S&P 500 +1.2%
  • DJIA +1.2%
  • Nasdaq -0.1%
Stock markets haven’t exactly set the world on fire in the past few months but they managed to skate through some turbulent times.
Here is a look at the quarterly chart of the S&P 500:
It's the final trading day of the month and the quarter
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