The third look at Q2 2019 GDP:
- Initial reading was +2.1%
- Second reading was 2.0%
- Q1 was 3.2%
- Q4 was 1.1%
- GDP y/y 2.3% vs 2.3% in 2nd estimate
Details:
- Personal consumption 4.6% vs 4.7% in 2nd reading
- Initial personal consumption +4.3%
- Consumer spending on durables +13.0% vs +13.0% in 2nd reading
- Business investment -1.0% vs -0.6% in 2nd reading
- Home investment -3.0% vs -2.9% in 2nd reading
- Exports -5.7% vs -5.8% in 2nd reading
- Imports 0.0% vs +0.1% in 2nd reading
- Trade cut 0.68 pp from growth rather than 0.72 pp in 2nd reading
- Corporate profits +3.7% vs +5.1% in 2nd reading
Inflation:
- GDP price index 2.4% vs 2.4% in 2nd reading
- Prior GDP price index 1.1%
- Core PCE 1.9% vs 1.7% in 2nd reading
- Prior core PCE 1.1%
- GDP deflator 2.6% vs +2.5% in 2nd reading
The three notable changes are all highlighted. Business investment was even worse than believed and inflation was higher. The revision lower in business investment made it the worst quarter by that metric since Q4 2015.
A big drag on business investment was investment in structures, which fell at an 11.1% pace.