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European equity close: Stocks beaten up but finish off the lows

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

  • UK FTSE 100 -2.2%
  • German DAX -2.9%
  • French CAC -3.1%
  • Spain IBEX -1.4%
  • Italy MIB -2.0%
On the week:
  • UK FTSE 100 -1.75%
  • German DAX -4.2%
  • French CAC -4.1%
  • Spain IBEX -3.4%
  • Italy MIB -3.2%

It was a rough week as the ECB disappointed and the trade war ramped up. The measured target of that head-and-shoulders pattern points to a dip all the way to the June lows.

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

More Chinese customers now willing to boycott US products

FT survey

The FT is out with a survey showing that just over 60% of Chinese urban consumers are now willing to boycott US goods. That compares to 54% in a similar survey last year.
FT survey
I think the rise and the absolute number are both surprisingly low. No doubt a similar survey in the US would show a rise as well. Maybe Chinese propaganda isn’t as effective as we thought?
Then again, if China wants a boycott it has plenty of ways to make it happen that aren’t consumer led.

China press: Beijing ‘won’t give an inch’ to Trump

The latest from the South China Morning Post

The latest from the South China Morning Post
A just-published article highlights comments from the foreign ministry and commerce ministry on Trump’s new tariffs.
Both the foreign and commerce ministries said the US would have to “bear all the consequences”and demanded more sincerity from Washington if negotiations were to continue following the president’s latest announcement, which caught many in Beijing off guard.
The statements indicate that plans for further talks could be shelved after the US broke an agreement not to impose further tariffs during negotiations. It also hinted at retaliation.

Officials did not give details on the possible counter measures China would take, but observers said China would be less willing to buy US agricultural products, and could restrict exports of rare earths – a key material used in the manufacturing of hi-tech products such as smartphones .

It may also speed up the production of its list of “unreliable entities” – companies deemed to pose a threat to China’s interests – a measure that could target US firms and hamper their operations in China.

Read it here.

US June trade balance -$55.2 billion vs -$54.6 billion expected

Latest data released by the BEA – 2 August 2019

  • Prior -$55.5 billion; revised to -$55.3 billion
  • Exports -2.1%
  • Imports -1.7%
  • Services +$20.0 billion
Overall trade remains somewhat steady but the decline in both exports and imports will be a bit of a concern, especially with trade tensions escalating. Of note, the trade deficit to China is seen at $30.2 billion – steady relative to May.

US July non-farm payrolls +164K vs +165K expected

Highlights of the July 2019 non-farm payrolls report

  • Prior was +224K (revised to +193K)
  • Estimates ranged from 74K to 224K
  • Two month net revision -41K
  • Unemployment rate 3.7% vs 3.6% expected
  • Participation rate 63.0% vs 62.9% prior
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.2% exp
  • Avg hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.1% exp
  • Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.4 exp
  • Private payrolls +148K vs +165K exp
  • Manufacturing +16K vs +17K prior
  • U6 underemployment 7.0% vs 7.2% prior

This is the closest to consensus I can ever remember a non-farm payrolls headline. When you factor in everything else, the good and bad also balance out. The revisions were negative but wage growth was upbeat. Unemployment rose but it was because of higher participation.

Germany 10-year yields fall to fresh record low as bond rally extends to Europe

Trump’s latest tariffs announcement is fueling the bond rally further

GDBR 10y 02-08

10-year bund yields have now fallen to a fresh low of -0.478% and looks inevitable to hit -0.50% as things continue down this path. At times, it’s crazy to imagine we’re living in such a world of negative yielding assets but it is what it is now.
These are desperate times, especially for investors.
If you look at the German sovereign yield curve, it’s only a matter of time before it entirely flips into negative territory at this point:
Germany yield curve

US Secretary of State Pompeo: Time for China to stop taking advantage of trade

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo

US secretary of state Pompeo is on the wires saying:

  • dispute about central premise of high global trade done
  • it is time for China to stop taking advantage of trade
  • China using predatory trade tactics for decades
  • China behavior has negative implications for business
  • Pres. Trump is clear that he wants China to do the right thing
  • US won’t tip and to what it will or won’t do in Hong Kong
  • engaging with Kim didn’t give him a darn thing
  • urges China to do the right thing regarding Hong Kong protests
  • China capital flowing to the US should not compromise national security
  • North Korea needs to fulfill promises made in Singapore
  • US fully committed to denuclearization in North Korea via diplomacy
  • US taking a toughest response to North Korea in history
  • Iran sanctions have been effective and we will enforce them everywhere
  • China has been helpful in engaging North Korea
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