Archives of “July 2019” month

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European shares closing with losses

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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German Dax, Frances, CAC, UK FTSE all in the red

The major European stock indices are closing with losses on the day.  The provisional numbers are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.72%
  • France’s CAC, -0.77%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.61%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.17%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.56%
In the European debt market the benchmark 10 year yields are also lower.   France’s yield is back below the 0.0% level (closed at 0.009% yesterday), trading at -0.036% near the close.
German Dax, Frances, CAC, UK FTSE all in the red

Fitch ratings affirms Japan at ‘A’, with stable outlook

  
  Analysis

The agency on Japan:

  •  says external resilience is further supported by Japan’s reserve currency status and investor perceptions as a safe haven
  • affirmed long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘A’ with a stable outlook
  • Says expect Japan’s inflation to pick up temporarily following tax hike, to 1.5% by end of year
  • Further escalation of global trade tensions could pose a significant risk to outlook for Japan

Analyst recommends that in the case of an imminent currency war, buy gold

  
  Analysis
Let’s see if they can extend their streak, this from overnight on gold from the bank.
  • “With a currency war most likely to be fought on USD/CNY and EUR/USD terrain, one approach would be to steer clear of the direct conflict” 
  • “By far the most direct and simple way to trade the complexities of a currency war is by going long gold.”
DB says a true currency war could develop if the U.S. attempt to weaken the dollar, and the response from other nations was to combat such intervention … sparking a “true currency war”.
Deutsche Bank gold buy recommendation
Article overnight on Bloomberg 

China’s holdings of Treasuries fell again in May

  
  Analysis

For the third month in a row.

The speculation will be that this is related to the tensions between China and the US. Do take note though that we’ve had concerns expressed on the falling holdings of USTs before and (so far) they have not amounted to much. China’s Treasury stash is still humongous (1.11 trillion USD worth, give or take).
Sure if China dump’s ’em all there will be bedlam. But so far they haven’t and it would be like shooting themselves in the foot were they to do so. So, while you will hear some scare stories, take them with a grain of salt.
Meanwhile, USD/JPY has dribbled a few tics lower.

Pompeo: Iran has said it is prepared to negotiate about missile program

  
  Analysis

Positive sign, perhaps?

This is a good signal on US-Iran relations and potentially a negative sign for oil. Trump also said a lot of progress has been made around Iran.
Perhaps the US would reinstate the nuclear deal if Iran agreed to shut down its missile program?
  • US isn’t seeking regime change in Iran, wants to work with current gov’t
  • US wants Iran out of Yemen

Trump takes aim at Google

  
  Analysis

Trump says that he’ll “take a look” at accusations that Google is working with the Chinese government

In his latest tweet:

“Billionaire Tech Investor Peter Thiel believes Google should be investigated for treason. He accuses Google of working with the Chinese Government.” @foxandfriends A great and brilliant guy who knows this subject better than anyone! The Trump Administration will take a look!

Google shares are off by about 0.8% now in pre-market trading and it’s not a good wake-up call for US equity investors with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs earnings also erring slightly more towards the disappointing side.
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