Archives of “July 25, 2019” day

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Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.22% at 21,756.55

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities edge higher on more buoyant mood in Wall St overnight

Nikkei 25-07

Similar to the performance in US equities, tech is leading the charge here and is also helped by Facebook reporting better-than-expected earnings after the closing bell.

Gains are more measured in Asia though with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite both up by around 0.3% currently. Equities are still a little buoyed in anticipation of major central banks looking to ease policy with the ECB potentially kicking things off today.
Currencies are looking more steady and cautious though with little changes across the board, even in yen pairs. This comes as Treasury yields are more steady. USD/JPY holds a little weaker at 108.11 but is little changed on the day.

FOMC meeting next week – most expect a rate cut but there are still a couple of holdouts

  
  Analysis
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Reuters polling of 111 economist on what they expect from the fres Federal Reserve on July 31:

  • 95% predict a 25 basis point cut
  • Two of the 111 said it’d be 50bps
  • Two said Fed to remain on hold
Reuters add a good point from Capital Economics:
  • “The biggest reason for the Fed to cut rates is because it has been priced into the markets for a while now. If they didn’t follow through and cut, it would cause a bit of a shock” 
It would be bedlam in the stock market I reckon, yep
Anyway, more:
  • “I think the recent general message from the Fed seems to be that it’s more about downside risks to growth rather than the economy being already weak” 
Reuters polling of 111 economist on what they expect from the fres Federal Reserve on July 31:

ECB monetary policy meeting today – preview of a live one – and where to for the EUR.

  
  Analysis
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The European Central Bank Governing Council will be dovish today, and may even cut the main rate.

  • 1145 GMT for the announcement
  • 1230 GMT is President Draghi’s press conference
  • Most expect the depo rate to remain on hold at -0.4%, although the probability of a cut (to 0.5%) is priced around 38% … which is not negligible …. this meeting is ‘live’.
Here’s a quick preview from TD:
  • The odds of a dovishly more proactive ECB look twice as high as those of a hawkish disappointment
  • The press conference is key to the ECB’s view on the rate floor, potential QE, low inflation expectations, and reinforcing a “symmetric” inflation target
And, on the euro:
  • With our base case fully priced and EUR weak, we see some scope upside if Draghi delivers as expected.
  • Dovish risks prevail, which could send EURUSD lower into fresh ranges. 
  • Next week’s FOMC may constrain follow-through.
European Central Bank dovish draghi

10 things that I have Learned the Hard Way

  
Analysis, Education
“You adapt, evolve, compete or die.” – Paul Tudor Jones
 I do not trade the same way I did when I started actively trading the stock market in the late nineties. The market itself has taught me many lessons about keeping my gains and cutting my losses short. I have traded through one of the biggest bull markets in history (1999) and one of the most vicious bear markets since the great depression (2008). I have learned when to trade big, when to trade small, and when not to trade at all. I have been taught the emotional pain of large losses when my ego wanted me to trade too big, and the pain of missing a huge move due to fear of entering a trade. I know what it feels like to lose $30,000 in  my account in a few years and the feeling making $150,000 in a few years with minimum draw downs. I know the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. I have both lost $4,000 in a morning and made $4,000 in a day. In my quest to make money trading I have read several hundred books about trading and the markets. I have spent well over a thousand hours studying charts and historical price action and seen what works and what does not. I have culled from them what works for me.
What have I learned?
 “Trading is an evolution of trader and system.” -Jonathan Keag
  1. I have learned to play the long side in bull markets and the short side in bear markets.
  2. I have learned to only risk 1% of my total trading capital on any one trade through proper position sizing and stop losses.
  3. I have learned to trade based on solid principles and NOT my own opinions.
  4. Focusing on the current market trend is the best way to make money.
  5. When I do not understand the market action, it is best to do nothing.
  6. Studying the greatest traders to ever live is a short cut to market success if you listen to what they have to say.
  7. I have to trade the method that fits my personality.
  8. I should have no regrets on my trading results if I followed my method and rules.
  9. I can not predict anything, I can only attempt to follow what IS happening.
  10. It is possible to pull six figures out of the market with the right homework and perseverance.
“Moving averages are my gurus.” – Larry Tentarelli
Keep learning, keep growing, keep tweaking your trading. Stick with what makes you money and allows you to keep it, discard what does not. How I trade today is nothing like what I did 14 years ago, who I am as a trader is nothing like I was even a few years ago. The question is not where you are now in your trading journey and how much money you have, the REAL question is who you will be and what you will have five and ten years from now if you keep doing what you are doing. Keep studying, keep growing, never give up.
“Stay Hungry, Stay Foolish.” -Steve Jobs

10 Trading Aphorisms

  
Analysis, Education
  1. An entry does not determine profitability it only determines potential profit the exit is where the win or loss occurs, focus on that.
  2. A robust trading system means nothing unless you can follow it with discipline and self control.
  3. Charts don’t care about any one persons opinions why should you?
  4. Good trading will make you some money but only good risk management will allow you to keep the money.
  5. Good traders search for the right entries, great traders search for the right systems.
  6. Bad traders have an opinion, good traders have a plan.
  7. In the markets money flows continually from those who do not really know how to trade to those who do.
  8. Eventually those with the best risk management and trading method end up with the money from those who only have a good  trading method.
  9. Bad traders tend to be stressed and emotional, good traders tend to be more quiet and at ease.
  10. Show me a trader overly focused on just one trade and I will show you the 90% that are unprofitable, show me a trader focused on the whole process of trading with little concern over any one trade and I will show you a member of the 10% that are profitable.

South Korea is watching for further North Korean launches

  
Analysis, Politics

North Korea fired an unidentified projectile from near its east coast city of Wonsan.

Earlier headline is here.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff statement say the military is morntoing for further launches:
“Our military is monitoring the situation in case of additional launches and maintaining a readiness posture”
Also, US officials confirm:
  • North Korea launched at least one short-range projectile
  • Similar to the previous launch in May
(On May 9)
More:
  • 2 projectiles fired
  • fly 430km

S&P and Nasdaq close at record highs

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow lags (blame Boeing and Caterpillar)

The broaders S&P and Nasdaq indices closed at record levels.  The S&P old record close came in at 3014.30. The index is closing at 2019.56
The record close in Nasdaq comes in at 8258.18. The index is closing at 8321.50.
Below are the low, high and close point ranges for the major indices.

Dow lags (blame Boeing and Caterpillar)The % changes (low, high and close) are below for the major NA and European indices.

% gains of the major indices
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