Archives of “July 18, 2019” day

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Who Is Winning The Trade War?

  
  Analysis
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China on Wednesday urged the Trump administration to “make up its mind” about reaching a trade deal with Beijing, warning that additional tariffs could send negotiations further off track. — South China Morning Post, July 17

We state emphatically,

Nobody Wins In A Trade War

We’re not sure how to even keep score in a trade war.  The relative performance of stock markets?  Economies?

Trade Deficit

President Trump likes to look at the bilateral trade deficit.   However, during his tenure, the cumulative trade deficit with China has increased by almost $100 billion, 8 percent higher relative to the prior 28 months before he took office.

 

China Trade War (more…)

European shares and the session lower on the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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10 year benchmark interest rates are also lower

The major European stock indicesare closed and showing losses for the day. The provisional closes are showing
  • German DAX, -0.84%
  • France’s CAC, -0.32%
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.54%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.72%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, unchanged

In the benchmark 10 year notes, yields are also lower but off the lower extremes.

10 year benchmark interest rates are also lowerIn other markets as London/European traders look to exit:
  • Spot gold is near unchanged levels at $1426.30. It was lower on the day at $1414.73 before reversing back to the upside. At the lows, the contract got close to the 100 hour moving average at 1413.87 (the low reached $1414.73).

Iran Pres. Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save nuclear deal

  
  Analysis
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Comments after telephone call with France’s Macron

More encouraging comments from Iran….
Iran Pres Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save 2015 nuclear deal. This comes after a telephone call with France’s Macron.
The price of crude oil is trading down $1.81 or -3.2% at $54.96. The low just extended to $54.85

WTI crude falls below the July low

  
Analysis, Crude

More Russian oil hits the market

More Russian oil hits the market
Oil is down more than a dollar in the last hour as it reversed an earlier gain.
The chart is looking increasingly negative as last week’s breakout turns into a bust down below support at the July low.
Crude has fallen in four straight sessions in a +7% decline.
The latest news is that Russia’s Roseft is back pumping oil at full capacity. Earlier gains came after Iran seized an oil tanker it said was smuggling 1 million liters of oil.
The bigger news is the ebb and flow on US-Iran relations. Trump and Pompeo hinted at an opening for talks earlier this week but Iran aggressively rebuffed it. Still, the market is signaling the potential for something coming together. Adding back 3.5mbpd of Iranian oil would be a major negative for crude.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 1.97% at 21,046.24

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index struggles as equities fall in Asian trading

Nikkei 18-07

The Nikkei is leading losses seen in Asia after Japanese trade data saw exports slide for a seventh consecutive month – and more than expected – prompting Japanese stocks to fall amid growing concerns about the slowing global economy.
The heavyweight tech and industrials sectors led losses, with softer sentiment from US equities overnight and futures today also helping to see other Asian equities marked lower. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are both down by 0.6% currently.
The sentiment is seen spilling over to Europe as well and is helping to give the yen a bit of a push as we begin European morning trade. USD/JPY holds near session lows now at 107.62 also backed by a weaker dollar on the day.

Alcoa cuts aluminum demand forecast, citing lower demand

  
  Analysis
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Not a great sign for the global economy

From Alcoa:
“Global aluminum demand growth for 2019 is estimated to range between 1.25 percent and 2.25 percent, down from 2 percent to 3 percent in the previous quarter, driven by lower demand in both China and the world ex-China due to trade tensions and macroeconomic headwinds,” they said in the quarterly report.
At the same time, they continue to forecast that inventories continue to decline and are forecast to end the year at levels not seen since before 2008.

US-China trade negotiations at ‘standstill’ as US weighs Huawei

  
  Analysis
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Headlines crossing

Progress has stalled as Trump’s administration tries to figure out how to meet the agreement to allow some US firms to sell products to Huawei.
This thing sounds like it’s going to fall apart before it even gets going. Stocks finished on the lows.
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