Scanning through some of the late week info from via banks, this via Barclays, in brief:
- Powell’s testimony was dovish, surprisingly so
- Increases confidence on 25 bp cut to come this month
- two more 25bp cuts to come by the end of the year
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No surprise from Barclays on the July forecast, this is consensus. A further 50bps to come by year end is a bit of an eyebrow raiser though.
Citi on the FOMC, 25 bp cut this month and another by year end
Citi see an increased downside risk for the US economy …. but acknowledge:
- that view is clearly not shared by Chair Powell
- July … a 25 basis point cut is likely to provoke two or more dissents, 25 basis points may be the compromise policy outcome
- Following … one additional 25 basis point cut, most likely in September