Archives of “July 12, 2019” day

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This is why US President Trump is in a no lose situation in the trade war with China

  
  Analysis

Comments reported from former chief White House strategist Steve Bannon, basically that:

Trump can portray his stance against Beijing as a strength in the 2020 election, deal or no deal
  • “I think you’re into 2020 before there’s any resolution to this” 
  • “I think it will help him politically because it’s the reality of the world that we live in” 
On this:
  • I think it will help him politically
That’s right, and do not forget that job #1 for a politician is to get elected and then re-elected.
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The counter argument is the pain the policies are causing farmers could see the President lose votes in farm areas. If I had to make a call, though, I reckon my headline is it. He will net gain votes.
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Oh, and on the ‘wait it out’ approach from China, until after the 2020 election. Again, my opinion, I’d be wary of discounting the support for the tough line on China across the political divide. How many opposing Trump have taken issue with him on China? Not many. Even if Trump loses there may not be too many concession to China.

Oil (ICYMI) – OPEC sees new oil surplus in 2020 (cut ze output!)

  
Analysis, Crude

Just last week OPEC and pals confirmed production cuts would be extended

But US shale oil production is a spanner in the works for their cunning plan
  • OPEC now estimates it’s producing about 560,000 barrels a day more than will be needed next year
Citing US shale oil still being pumped up
  • supplies from producers outside OPEC+ expected to grow by more than twice as much as global oil demand
Which will make it difficult for the cartel to hold prices up.
Bummer.

Gold – “central bank buying spree”

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver

A snippet from ANZ’s latest look at commodities, this on gold:

  • Gold remains a valuable asset amid rising geopolitical tension, growing macro uncertainty and a maturing economic cycle. The market expects synchronous rate cuts globally, which will make non-yielding gold attractive for investors.
  • Safe-haven buying of gold continued, with ETF holdings rising by 150t. The central bank buying spree continued in an effort to diversify from the US dollar. In PGMs, we see auto catalyst demand supportive, as the new China VI emission legislation kicks in from this month
A snippet from ANZ's latest look at commodities, this on gold:
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the central bank buying spree ANZ refers to we have covered in past months on ForexLive. Its been notable indeed.

US stocks end mixed in trading today. Dow/S&P closes at record highs. Nasdaq closes lower.

  
Analysis, US Market

S&P fails on 2nd try above 3000 but still closes at a record.

The US stocks are ending the session mixed.
  • The Dow closed up 227.74 points or 0.85% at 27088.  The index breached the 27,000 level for the first time ever and makes the close a record
  • The S&P index closed up 6.82 points for 0.23% at 2999.89. That was good enought to take out the record close of 2995.82.  A bit of a disappointment is that the high today could not take out the high from yesterday at 3002.88, and the index failed to close above the 3000 level.
  • The Nasdaq was the laggard today, c closing down -6.488 points or -0.08% at 8196.04.  Yesterday, the index closed at record high levels of 8202.53.

Helping the Dow 30 index today was:

  • UnitedHealth, +5.54%
  • Goldman Sachs, +2.59%
  • 3M, +2.0%
  • Boeing, +1.92%
  • Home Depot, +1.57%
  • Bank of America, +1.17%
  • Caterpillar, +0.98%
  • Nike, +0.96%
  • J.P. Morgan, +0.96%
Hurting the Dow today included:
  • Merck &Company, -4.53%
  • Pfizer, -2.43%
  • J&J, -0.79%
  • Apple, -0.73%
  • Travelers, -0.57%
  • DowDuPont, -0.23%
  • Verizon, -0.18%
  • McDonald’s, -0.14%
  • Chevron, -0.1%
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