Archives of “May 2019” month

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An Update :Dollar Index ,INR ,EURO ,JPY ,AUD ,GBP ,CAD ,CRUDE ,SPX ,NASDAQ Composite ,Shanghai Composite -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex, US Market
After pushing higher in the first part of last week, the US dollar reversed lower and saw follow-through selling ahead of the weekend.  The reversal saw all the major currencies but the British pound gain on the greenback last week. Although the ineptitude of Prime Minister May has weighed on sterling, the immediate reaction to her departure saw the pound fall as the risk of a no-deal exit rose.
As we discuss below, the technical condition warns that the corrective forces could continue through the week ahead.  Looking ahead of the macro calendar, this could persist until the run-up to the ECB meeting on June 6 and US employment data the following day.  Of course, these things are subject to change and fine-tuning.  The dollar remains supported by wide interest rate differentials and an economy that still appears stronger than Japan and most of Europe.  It strikes us that this is a short-covering correction for the major currencies rather than a turn in the underlying trend.
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A EUR/USD end-2019 forecast of 1.15

  
Analysis, Forex

A real quick post on Standard Chartered revisions to forex projections to year end.

Expect some sort of deal (the bank describes it a ‘cold deal’ with wariness persisting on both sides) between the US and China in the third quarter. This will halt tariff escalations.
See USD weakness from late Q3 (were expecting it sooner)
  • EUR/USD end-2019 forecast of 1.15, the bank had been at 1.18.
  • USD/JPY 108 at end-2019 (from their prior forecast of 105)

China: Global Times reports recommendations PBOC adopts ‘moderately loose monetary policy’

  
Analysis, Economy

Why? Well … “China should adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to offset the negative impact of the prolonged trade war with the US and provide a cushion against non-performing loans (NPLs) in the domestic banking system”

GT citing recommendations from the 2019 Semi-Annual Report of China’s Systematic Financial Risk.
Report released by the Tsinghua University National Institute of Financial Research at the Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum 2019 over the weekend.
GT is normally forthright with reporting on political developments in China with regards to the trade war. This piece is fairly mild. Still ….
  • negative impact of the prolonged trade war with the US
  • non-performing loans (NPLs) in the domestic banking system
gives a heads up to concerns in China.

Bitcoin is ending the weekend with a bang, BTC/USD above $8500

  
Analysis, BITCOIN

Bitcoin on a surge in the past hour or so:

Bitcoin on a surge in the past hour or so:
The crypto is back in the swing as a moving trading vehicle.
Why this surge? BTC doesn’t often need much of a reason. I’m going with more buyers than sellers. Although the “world is coming to an end and everyone will be living in sewers eating rat droppings unless they are BTC hodlers” crowd might soon be bleating out their own reasons. LOL.
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