Perfect 10
Perfect 10
Archives of “May 2019” month
rssICYMI: JP Morgan on Global manufacturing growth …. lacklustre
JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI for April – the one line summary is:
- Global manufacturing growth remains lacklustre as international trade flows contract again
The data was published overnight (hence the ICYMI), came in at 50.3 in April,
- from 50.5 in March
- April’s results is the lowest since June 2016
JPM comments:
- “The global manufacturing sector remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, with the PMI barely above the 50.0 mark and rates of expansion in output and new orders still lackluster and well below long-run trend levels.
- In particular, the capital goods sector PMI underscores that business capex remains stalled. International trade flows remain a significant drag on the manufacturing sector. New export business has now decreased for eighth successive months.”
Gold – here is who is buying less (and why there is a surplus in the market)
Latest data from the World Gold Council, quarterly report for Q1 2019:
Council estimates global central banks purchased 145.5t of gold in 1Q19
(up 68% y/y but, but down on the 165.6t purchased in 4Q18 … note that a peak of 253t in 3Q18)
- other sectors (includes jewellery and ETF investment) slowed, demand down 17% q/q to 1,060t in 1Q19
Gold supply down 4% q/q to 1,150t
Adds ING analysts:
- leaving the market with a net surplus of 90t in 1Q19
—
The World Gold Council (this from their site):
- is the market development organisation for the gold industry. Our purpose is to stimulate and sustain demand for gold, provide industry leadership, and be the global authority on the gold market.
Just so you know, right?
US Chamber of Commerce officials says US-China are in ‘endgame’ of negotiations
US Chamber of Commerce official
- US and China continue to make progress on a range of issues
- Business community believes getting a US-China trade deal sooner is better than getting no deal in long term
The earlier report about an ‘impasse’ in talks has faded, because it was speculation (as I warned). That said, it’s not like the Chamber of Commerce has a seat at the negotiating table so this is just informed speculation.
US stocks close lower but well off the lows
Beyond Meat IPO helps to save the day
The US stocks were moving lower in the US morning session, but an IPO for Beyond Meat which was priced at $25, opened at $46 and move sharply higher from there (trading up 163% on the day at $64.90).
Now a small-ish IPO does not make a market, but it did take some of the sting out of the declines which saw the Dow down about -250 points at the lows. It is ending with half those losses. The Nasdaq is down for the 3rd day. The S&P and Dow are down for the 2nd day.
The numbers at the close are showing:
- The S&P index -6.21 points or -0.21% at 2917.51. The low reached 2900.50 (nice round number)
- The Nasdaq fell -12.867 points or -0.16% at 8036. The low reached 7976.
- The Dow fell -122.35 to 26307. The low reached 26180.36.
Thought For A Day
Crude oil futures looks to test key 200 day moving average
Trading down $-2.52 at $61.08
The price of crude oil futures are trading at session lows at $61.08. That is down $2.52 or -3.92%. Looking at the daily chart below below, the 200 day moving average comes in at $60.98. The price moved above the 200 day moving average back on April 2, and has remained above that moving average since that time. A move below what we can the technical picture for the buyers/bulls.
I would expect buyers on the first test of the key MA, to lean against the level looking for a low risk bounce. However, on a break below, I would look for the buyers to become sellers.
On a break, The 50% midpoint of the move down from the October high would be the next target of $59.63. Below that, if the bearishness continues, traders will be eyeing the 100 day moving average down at $55.84.
Drilling to the one hour chart, the sellers today (and yesterday leaned against the 100 hour MA (blue line). That was the clue that the sellers were keeping/taking control. The price break down has been accelerating over the last few hours….
US mulls more aggressive enforcement of Iran sanctions
The White House mulls targeting companies that do business with Iran
WSJ report:
The Trump administration is considering a more aggressive enforcement of its economic sanctions on Iran-targeting more companies and financial institutions that do business with the Islamic Republic in an attempt to cut off lucrative sources of U.S. dollar-denominated hard currency, U.S. officials said.
It says they may take aim at petrochemicals.
European stocks are ending the session lower
German DAX, unchanged. Other indices not so lucky
The major European stock indices are ending the session lower. The German DAX is the best performer and -0.06% (call it unchanged). The other indices are not so lucky.
The snapshot of provisional closes are showing:
- German DAX, -0.06%
- France’s CAC, -0.85%
- UK’s FTSE after unchanged BOE interest-rate decision, -0.5%
- Spain’s Ibex, -1.0%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.71%
In the benchmark 10 year note market, yield changes are ending mixed but little changed.
$USDZAR A potent bull flag
