rss

FOMC May meeting minutes: Patient approach appropriate to policy for some time

FOMC May 2019 meeting minutes

  • patient approach appropriate for some time even if global conditions improved
  • many Fed officials saw inflation to as likely transitory
  • Fed discussed pros and cons of shortening bond portfolio maturity
  • generally agreed a patient approach to interest-rate policy changes was warranted
  • a few Fed policymakers that monetary policy might need to be tightened if economy evolves as expected
  • many Fed policymakers said holding shorter duration maturities could help future maturity extension programs
  • a number of Fed policymakers said a portfolio of more capacity for a maturity extension program was more desirable than a proportional portfolio with maturities similar to those of outstanding treasuries
  • many Fed policymakers said recent dip in PCE inflation likely to be transitory
  • discussed options for reaching the long-term portfolio composition, considered accelerated versus gradual approaches
  • several of Fed worried by risk of low inflation expectations
  • some say low inflation could on anchor expectations
  • inflation pressures remain muted
  • few note there still may be slack in the economy
  • some say downside risks to growth decreased
  • most say downside risks to growth remain
  • some say GDP likely to moderate after strong Q1
  • many of you weak inflation is transitory
  • inflation or 2% still most likely outcome
  • some say downside inflation risks increased
The market reaction has been somewhat muted in the Forex market.
  • USDJPY  has had a high of 110.31 and a low of 110.23. Tradesat 110.25
  • EURUSD traded to 1.1157 currently trades at 1.1163

Up and down session for US stocks with a negative bias.

Major indices close near the lows

The USD stocks opened lower, rallied toward the unchanged line, but sold off in the last hour and is closing near the session lows.  In between, there was plenty of ups and down.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index fell -8.09 points or -0.28% at 2856.27
  • The Nasdaq index fell -34.88 points or -0.45% at 7750.84
  • The Dow fell -100.72 points or -0.39% at 25776.63

Pres Trump will not do infrastructure deal under these circumstances

No deal as long as phony investigations continue

Pres Trump at the White House
  • upset that Democrats discuss impeachment before White House meeting on infrastructure
  • when Democrats probes are over, he is ready to work with them on infrastructure, drug prices
  • We are doing a lot without the Democrats
Earlier today, Pelosi said that
  • “We believe no one is above the law including the President of the United States, and we do believe the President of the United States is involved in a cover-up”

Crude oil inventories +4740K vs -1700K estimate.

Weekly crude oil inventory data from the DOE

Crude oil inventory climbs by 4740K in the current week
  • Crude oil inventories, +4740K vs -1700K est
  • Cushing OK crude inventory, 1266K va 1805K last week
  • Gasoline inventory, 3716K vs -850K estimate
  • Distillate inventory, 768K vs -500K estimate
  • US refinery utilization -0.6% versus +0.5% estimate
  • crude oil implied demand 18466 versus 18936 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9845.4 versus 9932.6 last week
  • distillates implied demand 5198.3 versus 5293.0 last week
The private data from the API showed a +2400 build but this data is even larger.  THe price of crude oil has moved down to $62.00 from  $62.50 before the report.
The contract is below its 200 hour moving average at $62.34 and is moving toward the 50% retracement of the move up from the May 6 low and $61.93.
crude oil is testing its 50% retracement of the move up from the May 6 level
Go to top