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CFTC Commitments of Traders: Specs pile into bets against sterling

Weekly Forex futures met noncommercial positioning data for the week ending May 21, 2019:

  • EUR short 101K vs 95K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
  • GBP short 26K vs 3K short last week. Shorts increased by 23K
  • JPY short 55K vs 62K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 7K
  • CHF short 37k vs 40k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 3K
  • AUD short 66k vs 66k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
  • NZD short 11K vs 11K short last week. Unchanged
  • CAD short 42K vs 48K short last week.  Shorts trimmed by 6K
  • Prior report
The big move is in the pound, where specs finally hit the ‘sell’ button. The market did a poor job of figuring out what was going on with GBP and missed nearly all of the move lower (at least so far). To be fair, everyone has been frustrated with the pound.
GBP net:
Weekly Forex futures met noncommercial positioning data for the week ending May 21, 2019:

Separately, this is the second week in a row of yen shorts getting out of the way. They cut the position by 30K last week as risk aversion hit and continued the same trend this week.

The Swiss franc was the top performer this week while the pound lagged

…but GBP has climbed today

forex weekly leaderboard May 24
Risk aversion and the downfall of Theresa May were the stories this week in the market. The trade war weighed on risk assets and that made the Swiss franc the top performer. Right behind was the Australian dollar, which benefited from the election surprise.
At the bottom of the pile was the pound as it was hammered once again on political uncertainty and the Brexit fiasco. In a small promising sign, it climbed 60 pips on Friday to blunt the losses after May showed herself the door. Just behind the pound was the loonie, which was dragged lower by the implosion in crude oil.
The GBP/CHF chart is an interesting one. It flashed a double top on May 6 and that was a major selling signal. It’s since fallen nearly 700 pips. With all the major moving averages now broken, there isn’t much support until 1.24.
GBPCHF
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