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Huawei’s dollar bonds dive as investors worry about next US move

Huawei Technologies’ dollar bonds are plunging as U.S. and other companies begin adhering to Washington’s latest sanctions and stop conducting transactions with the Chinese telecom equipment maker.

The price fall comes as investors become fearful that Washington’s next move might be to impose financial restrictions on the company.

An analyst at a major think tank said U.S.-China relations “have entered a stage where neither side can back down.”

Huawei has issued dollar-denominated bonds four times. The bonds have maturity dates from 2022 to 2027, and their combined outstanding balance is around $4.5 billion. The issues’ lead managers include major global investment banks, including the U.K.’s HSBC and Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, Citigroup of the U.S. and Hong Kong’s Bank of China.

According to QUICK FactSet, Friday’s price, the most recent available on the service, for a 10-year Huawei bond with a coupon rate of 4.215% and a May 2026 maturity was $954.10. That is down 2.4% from the previous business day and marks the price’s steepest daily decline since the $1,000 bond was issued.

The yield was at about 4.9%.

The U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday officially added Huawei to its Entity List of foreign companies deemed to pose a security threat. American companies are banned from trading with these “entities,” which means Huawei is barred from buying U.S.-made components, software and other technologies.

“This decision is in no one’s interest,” Huawei said in a release on Friday.

Shinichi Seki, a Japan Research Institute analyst, said Washington’s next move could be placing financial sanctions on Huawei. If Huawei, like Iran and North Korea before it, is banned from conducting transactions in dollars, the technology company would suffer a significant blow, Seki said.

And since Huawei is a symbol of Beijing’s Made in China 2025 initiative, the country’s economic growth could be hindered.

The total outstanding balance of Huawei’s dollar-denominated bonds is minuscule relative to the company’s net worth of about $34 billion. And the unit price of the aforementioned issue remains relatively high compared to its low of about $890 that it plumbed in December.

However, investors remember when Huawei’s debts last year swelled about 30% as U.S.-China relations deteriorated. Since then, the market has grown more anxious about where the two countries’ battle for economic hegemony might be headed.

European shares end the session with gains

European indices end the session higher.

  • German DAX, +0.86%
  • France’s CAC, +0.5%
  • Britain’s FTSE, +0.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.47%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.74%
Below are the % low and % highs and closes of the major indices including the NA markets which are holdig on to solid gains (but off lows and highs):
In the 10 year note sector, yields are ending mixed with risk on flows dominating with help from higher stocks:
Major stock indices are above the 0.0 line

Fed’s Evan due to speak at 10:45 AM ET/1445 GMT

Feds Evans is the President of the Chicago Fed and is a voting member in 2019

Fed’s Evans is due to speak at 10:45 AM ET.  Evans is a voting member on the Federal Reserve board.

On May 3 he said:
  • Downside risks have eased by still larger than upside ones
  • We shouldn’t be too dismissive of core inflation drop
  • Some drop in inflation may be due to temporary factors
  • Sees risk inflation expectations are too low
  • Fundamentals for US growth remain good

Brexit: May will set out new proposal for her deal in speech at 1500 GMT

UK government spokesman confirms

  • Cabinet earlier discussed new deal that is to be presented in parliament
  • Says Cabinet meeting was characterised by shared determination to pass the deal
  • New deal includes alternative arrangements, assurances on UK integrity in the event that the backstop is triggered
The pound has pared some of its earlier losses as cable rises from 1.2690 to around 1.2720 currently as more headlines pour in over May’s statement in parliament later. The price action suggests some short covering ahead of the event in case that May’s offer is compelling enough to convince UK lawmakers to switch sides and vote for her.
However, I reckon after the details have been revealed, there isn’t going to be much of a significant change. Despite this being her last action as prime minister, it’s just not going to be enough to get a Brexit deal through; not when Labour is continuing to reaffirm that they will vote against her when the time comes.
The pound may see more bids in the coming session as May’s details may give her some hope but when reality sets in, expect it all to crumble into a big messy pile again. I’m still inclined to sell the rallies unless her deal manages to swing the odds in her favour – but that is very, very, very unlikely to happen as of now.

OECD cuts 2019 global economic growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.3% in March

OECD releases its latest economic outlook on the global economy

  • 2020 global economic growth seen at 3.4% (unchanged)
  • Says that global growth is to remain sub-par due to trade tensions
  • 2019 US economic growth seen at 2.8% (0.2% higher)
  • 2020 US economic growth seen at 2.3% (0.1% higher)
  • 2019 China economic growth seen at 6.2% (-)
  • 2020 China economic growth seen at 6.2% (-)
  • 2019 Eurozone economic growth seen at 1.2% (0.2% higher)
  • 2020 Eurozone economic growth seen at 1.4% (0.2% higher)
  • 2019 Japan economic growth seen at 0.7% (0.1% lower)
  • 2020 Japan economic growth seen at 0.6% (0.1% lower)
  • 2019 UK economic growth seen at 1.2% (0.4% higher)
  • 2020 UK economic growth seen at 1.0% (0.1% higher)
Despite a slightly improved outlook to more major/developed nations, OECD notes that trade disruptions and higher tariffs on US-China trade is likely to hit global growth further resulting in a sharp slowdown in investment and confidence faltering.
The slight downgrade to global growth forecast comes alongside a softer touch among more developing nations, particularly in Asia. It’s not much of a surprise as trade tensions are likely to hit the likes of South Korea first before other nations start feeling the pinch.
As far as bad news goes for risk sentiment today, this is very much bearable as the downgrade to the global growth forecast is rather minimal.

Watches of Switzerland seeks £660m valuation in London listing

Watches of Switzerland said it planned to seek a market capitalisation of up to £660m in its upcoming initial public offering in London as it seeks to pay off some of its debt. The UK’s largest luxury watch retailer intends to sell shares in a range between 250-277p each, which would bring its value to between £610m and £660m, the company said on Tuesday. It plans to raise at least £200m, it said, which excludes a 10 per cent “greenshoe” option, a mechanism that would aim to bring in extra proceeds. Watches of Switzerland, which accounted for half of all Rolex timepieces sold in the UK in 2018, seeks a premium listing on the London Stock Exchange, comprising new and existing shares. The retailer has been expanding in recent years and entered the US market in late 2017. It has 21 stores there as well as its 125 UK outlets. Its pricing would bring it to 13 to 14 times the price/earnings ratio on net income for April 2020 forecast at £47m. The group intends to use the net proceeds to reduce leverage to about £120m of net debt, it said. Apollo Global Management, which owns over 90 per cent of the company, would reduce its holding but retain a controlling stake. At least 25 per cent of the company’s shares would be freely traded under the proposal. The group generated sales of £746m in the 12 months to January 27. It held a 35 per cent share of the UK luxury watch market by total value of sales in 2018, and a 41 per cent share when brand-owned stores are excluded. The group said when it initially announced its plans to list that Barclays and Goldman Sachs International would act as joint global co-ordinators, bookrunners and sponsors, while BNP Paribas and Investec would act as joint bookrunners. Rothschild is acting as financial adviser.

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