Archives of “May 13, 2019” day

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EURUSD catches a reversal cold. Fixing takes the pair lower?

  
Analysis, Forex

What we do know is the ceiling stalled the rally, and the bullish control weakened

Earlier, I outlined the EURUSD test of a swing area at 1.12617-641 area.  That area ended up stalling the rally after testing it a few times. The price started to come down and the fixing at 4 PM in London, seemed to attract more selling. Or is it just traders squeezing higher and then getting whipped on a reversal?
What we do know is the ceiling stalled the rally, and the bullish control weakened
Anyway, now the pair is back lower and looking to test its 200 bar MA on the 4- hour at 1.12273.  The low just reached 1.1230.  The pair has the caught a reversal cold as market traders struggle with what are the global implications for the dollar, EUR, GBP – well all the pairs.  Ups and downs like this happen because of uncertainty (absent new news).
Looking at the 5-minute chart, the high resistance area from the hourly chart was tested 3 times before the sellers assumed the throne and took control. Falling below the 38.2-50% gave seller even more control.  Now the pair si back down looking to test the 200 bar MA on the 4-hour at 1.1227. Does that MA (which has done a good job of holding support over the last 24 hours), now stall the fall?

European equities slump into the close

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Closing changes for the main bourses:

Rough start to the week after a poor run last week:
  • German DAX -1.5%
  • French CAC -1.2%
  • UK FTSE 100 -0.5%
  • Spain IBEX -0.5%
  • Italy MIB -1.3%
European stocks didn’t participate in the rebound led by US equities late on Friday so the losses are narrower than the 2.3% decline in the S&P 500. Plus, Europe isn’t in the middle of a trade war with China.

The EURUSD is trading higher with the lower dollar flows

  
Analysis, Forex

Trade wars heats up

With the US/China trade wars heating up, the EURUSD moving to new session highs on the flows.
Trade wars heats up
The EURUSD is trading is up testing the swing highs from April 22 and again on May 1 at the 1.12617-1.1264 area.  The high just reached up to 1.1261.  A move above that level opens the door for a move to the 1.12780-936 area (other swing areas).
Drilling to the 5 minute the close risk is the high from Friday. Other bias/risk defining levels are the 38.2% at 1.12487 and then the 1.12447 area.  Those levels represent the 38.2% and 50% of the move higher.  A move below each weakens the bull bias just a little more.
The 50% of the move up comes in at 1.12447. THat is a risk/bias level for the intraday.

AUD/JPY falls to the lowest since the January 3 flash crash on trade war fears

  
Analysis, Forex

AUD/JPY down more than 1%

AUD/JPY is at session lows, down 84 pips to 76.13 as trade worries fears intensify after China revealed plans to hit US goods with tariffs on June 1. This isn’t entirely unexpected but it highlights the risk that the US and China will be in a protracted trade war.
AUD/JPY down more than 1%

Technically, there isn’t a lot to prevent this pair from sinking all the way back down to the January low. There is some scope for Australian firms to take Chinese market share away from the US but softer global growth will be a huge headwind if this trade battle continues.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.72% at 21,191.28

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index begins to slip below its 100-day moving average

Nikkei 13-05

A softer close for the Nikkei here as equities sentiment in Asia is very much affected by the weaker performance seen in US equity futures. E-minis are down by more than 1% to start the day and that’s leaving a bit of a softer risk mood in trading so far.

Overall, that’s helping to keep the yen underpinned with USD/JPY holding near 109.75 currently and risk/commodity currencies are also generally weaker as US-China trade talks last week didn’t make the needed progress to keep markets buoyed.

Crucial Update :Dollar Index ,Euro ,GBP ,YEN ,INR ,CAD ,AUD ,SPX500 ,Nasdaq Composite ,Brent -WTI Crude -ANIRUDH SETHI

  
Analysis, Crude, Forex, US Market
In the wake of the May 5 tweets that signaled the end of the tariff truce, the dollar was mixed, with a heavier bias.  The strongest currencies were the Japanese yen (~1.0%) and Swiss franc (~0.45%).  The Dollar Index fell about 0.2%.  The major currencies that failed to gain against the dollar had idiosyncratic factors, like the seeming failure of the cross-party talks in the UK (sterling fell ~1.3%) or the rate cut in New Zealand (~-0.75%), and a series of weak economic data from Sweden (krona ~-0.70%) in contrast to Norway where the central bank indicated another hike as early as next month.
Within a medium-term bullish outlook, we anticipated and continue to track what appears to be a consolidative/corrective phase for the dollar.  On balance, we expect this phase to continue in the week ahead.  The escalation of trade tensions between the US and China has offset the impact of the surge in Q1 US GDP and the strong April jobs data on expectations for Fed policy.  The dollar bulls need more time, as it were, to adjust to the narrowing of interest rate differentials, and consider the impact on US corporate earnings from formal or informal retaliatory action by China that may follow.
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