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With US and China at impasse over trade, Kudlow says new tariffs will remain

The United States and China appeared at a deadlock over trade negotiations on Sunday as Washington demanded promises of concrete changes to Chinese law and Beijing said it would not swallow any “bitter fruit” that harmed its interests.

The trade war between the world’s top two economies escalated on Friday, with the United States hiking tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods after President Donald Trump said Beijing ‘broke the deal’ by reneging on earlier commitments made during months of negotiations.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Fox News on Sunday that the United States needs to see China agree to “very strong” enforcement provisions for an eventual deal and said the sticking point was Beijing’s reluctance to put agreed changes into law.

He vowed the tariffs would remain in place while negotiations continue.

Beijing remained defiant, however. “At no time will China forfeit the country’s respect, and no one should expect China to swallow bitter fruit that harms its core interests,” said a commentary, due for Monday publication, in the ruling Communist Party’s People’s Daily.

It said Beijing’s doors were open to talks but it would not yield on important issues of principle.

Kudlow said there was a “strong possibility” that Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Japan in late June. Until last week, there were expectations Trump and Xi would sign a trade deal at the summit. (more…)

China Lists The 3 Conditions To Agree To Trade Deal

In an unusual move, the Chinese delegation has come clean to the domestic press about Beijing’s remaining trade-deal related demands, exposing steep divides that could make it a final deal impossible for Trump, who has repeatedly said he will only accept a “great” deal.

Unsurprisingly, Liu He, the leading Chinese trade negotiator, confirmed what Beijing has intimated time and time again:

That without the complete removal of all trade-war related tariffs, Beijing will not remorse a deal.

The other two demands were related to American commitments to buy Chinese goods, something that could also pose a problem.

In a wide-ranging interview with Chinese media after talks in Washington ended Friday, Vice Premier Liu He said that in order to reach an agreement the U.S. must remove all extra tariffs, set targets for Chinese purchases of goods in line with real demand and ensure that the text of the deal is “balanced” to ensure the “dignity” of both nations.

Underscoring the parlous nature of the negotiation, Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Friday that the administration is planning to release details of its process for imposing tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports. The move will likely have the desired effect: Communicating that Trump doesn’t plan to yield on what’s left of his core demands.

For those keeping track, here’s a timeline courtesy of Rabobank.

RABOBANK

But as campaigning for the upcoming presidential vote ramps up, the administration will need to carefully consider the pressure on the American consumer that might become a factor if the price of all goods flowing into the US from China is forced higher due to the additional tariffs.

In his interview Liu said both sides agreed to keep talking despite what he called “some temporary resistance and distractions,’’ and to hold future meetings in Beijing. He dismissed the idea that talks had broken down. “It’s normal to have hiccups during the negotiations. It’s inevitable.”

Liu also struck a note of defiance. “For the interest of the people of China, the people of U.S. and the the people of the whole world, we will deal with this rationally,” the vice premier said.

“But China is not afraid, nor are the Chinese people,” adding that “China needs a cooperative agreement with equality and dignity.”

Ultimately, respecting national sovereignty was a major theme in the talks. but whether Trump is willing to make these concessions and risk looking weak before the man who is emperor of one-fifth of the world’s population.

US China Trade, the $, and the Week Ahead

China is isolated on trade.  No one supports its trade practices.  The idea that China was going to “naturally” evolve to be more like the US, or Europe for that matter, was always fanciful and naive. The emergence of China, as Napoleon warned two centuries ago, would make the world shake.
US administrations adopted a multi-prong strategy of managing the rise of China.  On economic issues, the focus was on working through multilateral institutions, like the G7, G20, IMF, and WTO. The US did not block China joining the WTO in late 2001 when many feared 9/11 was the end to globalization.  The US did not prevent the Chinese yuan from being included in the SDR (Special Drawing Rights) starting in October 2016.  It insisted that China was an emerging market economy, which made it easy to take action against dumping.   At the same time, considering it a non-market would qualify China for different types of development assistance, which may no longer be necessary.  Past Administrations formally objected to many Chinese practices, challenged them before the WTO and often won.
There are numerous ways to measure China’s integration into the world economy, which shares much in common with a basketball or football game where the violation of the rules is part of the game itself.  That the US had a widening bilateral trade deficit with China is not proof of anything by itself.  It is especially not evidence of the failure of the multilateral approach. A balanced reading of the modern Chinese economic history, since Deng Xiaoping’s reforms, shows a clear evolution of policies, and often in the broad direction that the international community finds agreeable.  It has made sufficient reforms, for example, that its stock and bond markets are increasingly included in global benchmarks.   Despite threats to the contrary, no President since Clinton has cited China as a currency manipulator.

(more…)

Trump on Twitter – Says trade deal will be far worse for China in his 2nd term

US President Trump on trade negotiations with China, comments via social media:

A couple of tweets:
  • I think that China felt they were being beaten so badly in the recent negotiation that they may as well wait around for the next election, 2020, to see if they could get lucky & have a Democrat win – in which case they would continue to rip-off the USA for $500 Billion a year.
  • The only problem is that they know I am going to win (best economy & employment numbers in U.S. history, & much more), and the deal will become far worse for them if it has to be negotiated in my second term. Would be wise for them to act now, but love collecting BIG TARIFFS!
The tariffs, being collected from US firms importing goods from China, are set to get bigger after the latest hike on Friday. Trump already looking forward to higher again in his second term.
The trade dispute looks set to continue for the foreseeable future. Its difficult to see these comments being positive for China-proxy trades (lookin’ at you AUD). Buckle up!
US President Trump on trade negotiations with China, comments via social media:

Houston ship channel closed after ships collide, one sinks

Collision could impact oil prices

A crude oil tanker collided with a tugboat carrying two barges late on Friday. One of the barges was damaged and the other sank.
Both were carrying reformate, an oil-refining byproduct used to make gasoline.
Cleanup efforts are underway with the channel closed an a strong odour of gasoline miles from the area.
The closure of the channel will tighten US inventories but given the US’s newfound status as an importer and exporter, it could also cause some shipments to remain stuck at home.
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