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Week ahead: Walmart, Fed speakers, geopolitics

With the Uber IPO out of the way and trade concerns dragging markets lower over recent sessions, investors turn to retail results and economic data next week.

Here’s what to watch in the coming days.

Geopolitics

US secretary of state Michael Pompeo is expected to travel to Moscow to meet Sergei Lavrov on Monday. The pair are expected to discuss Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump will meet Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban in Washington.

Investors will also keep a close eye on updates around trade after the US on Friday increased tariffs on $200bn worth of Chinese products from 10 per cent to 25 per cent and Mr Trump said he was “starting the paperwork” on Thursday to impose 25 per cent levies on Chinese goods worth an additional $325bn.

Moreover, Saturday, May 18, marks the deadline for President Trump to decide on potential auto tariffs for the EU, though economists expect he could extend that cut-off time.

Fed speakers

With concerns about central bank communication and Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell indicating earlier this month that he sees no immediate need to move interest rates either higher or lower, investors will closely parse commentary from officials next week.

The roster includes Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren, governor Richard Clarida, New York Fed president John Williams and Kansas City Fed president Esther George, who are all voting members of the monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee.

“A range of Fed speakers next week may return market attention to the Fed’s operational framework review,” strategists at TD Securities, said. “Among voters, Rosengren and Clarida likely will give some support to inflation ‘make-up’ policies, while George should be a more critical voice.”

US data

The economic calendar is fairly stacked next week with updates on the health of the housing market, manufacturing and the consumer. But it is retail sales and industrial production that will be most closely watched.

Economists project retail sales to have risen 0.2 per cent month-on-month in April and so-called control sales that strip out more volatile items like food, petro and building materials to be up 0.3 per cent. Industrial production is expected to stay flat.

Walmart and retail earnings

Earnings season slows to a trickle with just nine companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results next week. Walmart reports results on Thursday and the biggest US retailer’s ecommerce sales are likely to come under scrutiny as it continues to battle with Amazon for retail supremacy. Ralph Lauren and Macy’s are among the others reporting next week.

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