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European shares close mostly higher

he week was not great though

The major European indices ended on Friday mostly with gains. The exception was the Britain’s FTSE which was marginally lower.
The low to high ranges and closing level chart below does show, however, that the indices closed near the day low levels.  The US indices are also trading closer to the days lows (and doing worse on the day).
The week was not great though

For the week, the numbers were not impressive:

  • German Dax, -2.84%%
  • France’s CAC -3.99%
  • Britains FTSE, -2.01%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.10%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -4.08%
For the US markets with the afternoon trading left to be traded:
  • S&P index, -3.64%
  • Nasdaq, -4.51%
  • Dow, -3.54%
PS Uber opened at $42 and the price is trading with a $42 floor  and mostly below $43 so far (with some spikes above).  I don’t think the price has reached the IPO price of $45.

Uber has some trouble building a bullish book it seems

Indication is $45-$46 with IPO priced at $45

The Uber IPO was priced at $45 per share. The indication is for $45 -$46 as the first price, and leaning toward $45.50.   Compared to recent IPOs first trade, that would be a disappointment- especially for IPO investors who expect a bump up (forBeyond Meat it was a moon shot higher).  Opening up and going lower would not be good.  The underwriters as a result, will do all they can to support the market by putting their own capital to work at the IPO price.
Of course, the oveall market is not helping. The Nasdaq is down -1.6-%. The S&P is down -1.26%.
On a potential positive side for the IPO, the tariffs going into effect before the weekend, allows Pres. Trump to do his thing on twitter.   Uber and their bankers are probably looking for a tweet or two to turn the beat around before the first trade.
ON a potential negative side for the IPO, a China comment is a wild card too.
Not a good day for a new IPO.

China said to be unwilling to ‘weaponise’ the yuan despite US’ latest tariffs hike

According to MNI News, citing an expert advising the Chinese government

They’re certainly keeping their bullets close to the chest for the time being but you can argue that there has been a subtle change to their approach to trade talks than in the past. Previously, China has never really weakened the yuan in the build-up to negotiations but today, the PBOC noticeably settled on a higher USD/CNY at the fixing this morning.

China says US must meet them halfway for stable relations

Further comments by China’s foreign ministry

US China
  • Says that healthy US-China relations is in the interest of all sides
  • Says US should stop suppressing Chinese companies
  • Calls for US to follow market principles on China Mobile
  • Says ‘stay tuned’ for detailed trade measures
The usual commentary coming about from China now. Still no suggestions that we’re moving closer to a trade truce. Remember, in any event we get headlines later today, it’s best to wait on confirmation from the Chinese camp as well.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.27% at 21,344.92

Tokyo’s main index fends off test of the 100-day moving average

Nikkei 10-05

The Nikkei closes lower but bounced off its lows in the last hour of trading as Chinese stocks also recouped losses seen immediately after the lunch break earlier. At one stage, the Nikkei was down by nearly 1% as US increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and as China vowed to retaliate.

However, the rebound suggests that market participants are still holding out on hopes for some form of compromise to be struck. US equity futures are still down by 0.3% while Treasury yields are flat on the day, hinting at caution still among investors.
As a result, USD/JPY sits flat now at 109.74 after having tested a low of 109.62 in the past hour. Look out for more cautious tones in European trading later as we await the second day of trade talks in Washington.

Does escalation mean the end of a US-China trade deal?

US has increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% and China has vowed to retaliate in response

US-China

However, this does not mean the end of a possible trade truce between the two countries. Both parties are still scheduled to talk things over later today and we’re yet to hear of any news about the Trump-Xi phone call, if it even happens.

Nonetheless, there’s still a possibility of both sides striking a compromise as the tariffs implementation by the US here is still widely regarded as a negotiating tactic or something to force China’s hand. The key sticking point in talks right now is that China can’t see eye-to-eye with the US on more structural issues, as highlighted here earlier in the week.
I reckon that we could see China offer some wiggle room – not on key matters though – but whether or not Trump will be agreeable to that, remains to be seen.
If Trump’s idea is to make a scene so as to appear that China is seen caving in, then it is likely he will accept China’s stance. From China’s perspective, if they can avoid hard commitments on the structural issues mentioned, then they’re happy to go along with it too.
Hence, there’s still a chance for a deal to be struck but I wouldn’t expect it to be a lasting truce between the two countries.
In fact, any deal is most likely going to be a watered-down version of what Trump would really want. So as soon as markets come to terms with that, expect market participants to greet the deal with cynicism and skepticism

Uber prices IPO near low end of range at $45

Uber priced its shares at $45 a piece, near the bottom of its indicated $44-to-$50 range, after paring expectations following the fraught debut of its US rival Lyft and a broader US markets sell-off.

The ride-hailing company sold 180m shares to raise $8.1bn in new capital and deliver a total valuation of $82.2bn on a fully diluted basis. This makes it the biggest IPO for a US-based technology company since Facebook in 2012, and the tenth biggest overall US listing in terms of proceeds, according to Dealogic.

The stock will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday under the ticker UBER. The lead underwriters on the IPO were Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America.

Despite its rapid rise to become one of the biggest global ride-hailing companies, Uber’s valuation has not increased as spectacularly as some early backers hoped. It is selling shares to public investors below the $48.77 price at which it sold stock to private investors including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund three years ago.

Excluding the new funds raised and a $500m private stock sale to PayPal at the IPO price, Uber’s IPO valuation of $73.6bn fell below the $76bn reached in its last private fundraising in August.

Before it launched its IPO roadshow, Uber had told some holders of its convertible notes that it could price in a range of $48 to $55 a share, giving it a valuation of $90bn to $100bn.

“There is investor demand for these types of businesses that are innovators and creating new economies that are changing the way we drive and changing the way we exchange ideas, but not euphoria,” said Jordan Stuart, client portfolio manager from the Federated Kaufmann funds.

Mr Stuart said that investors are interested in profits alongside disruptive technology and revenue growth. “The market is being very deliberate,” he said. “Investors are looking for a pathway to profitability.”

Uber decided to take a more conservative approach to pricing in the last few days as it wrapped up two weeks of investor meetings in New York, London, San Francisco and other cities, according to a person familiar with the roadshow.

Executives and bankers were keen to avoid a sell-off like Lyft has seen in its early weeks of public trading. Uber prioritised the allocation of shares to institutional investors and “blue-chip” funds that were seen as more likely to hold the stock for the long-term, rather than hedge funds or retail investors, the person said.

Lyft, which only operates in the US and Canada, debuted in March with an offering that raised $2.3bn and valued the company at $24bn. Since then, its shares have traded well below their IPO price of $72 as investors grow concerned about the lack of profits in the ride-hailing industry and pressure from short sellers. Lyft shares closed on Thursday at $55.18.

“The Uber team is playing a long game here in their pricing strategy,” said Eric Kim, co-founder and managing partner at Goodwater Capital. “They are trying to get the right shareholders who will be with them for the long term, so they are pricing shares more attractively.”

“Given how much negative sentiment there is right now in the overall ride-sharing space that we see in the performance of Lyft stock, the market will reward Uber for being measured in its pricing strategy.”

Even with the more conservative pricing, Uber’s co-founders and early investors are set for a bonanza.

Top Uber shareholders
InvestorValue of holding*
SoftBank Vision Fund$10bn
Benchmark$6.75bn
Travis Kalanick, Uber co-founder$5.3bn
Garrett Camp, Uber co-founder$3.7bn
Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF)$3.3bn
Alphabet$3.2bn
Ryan Graves, Uber first employee$1.5bn
Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber CEO$8.8m
Yasir al-Rumayyan (PIF managing director, Uber director, personal stake)$5.5m
*based on IPO price of $45 a share

(more…)

Vale posts $1.6bn loss following deadly dam disaster

Vale, the world’s biggest producer of the steelmaking ingredient iron ore, on Thursday posted a $1.6bn loss in the first quarter of the year as the company reels from a deadly dam disaster that killed over 230 people.

The loss was driven by $4.5bn in “expenses related” to the dam disaster in Brumadinho in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, including provisions for a compensation programme and the decommissioning of tailings dams, and $450m related to “operational stoppages”. 

Quarterly revenue fell to $8.2bn in the three months to the end of March from $8.6bn in the same period a year ago on lower sales as a result of some of its operations going offline after the disaster.

The deadly dam breach also led to a $652m loss before tax, depreciation and amortisation — Vale’s first ever negative quarterly Ebitda result. During the same period last year, the company reported $3.9bn in adjusted Ebitda.

The Rio de Janeiro-based company has been dealing with the worst crisis in its history since late January when a tailings dam collapsed leaving a swath of destruction that killed 237 people, displaced hundreds more and triggered an outpouring of public anger against Vale. This resulted in the departure of former chief executive Fabio Schvartsman.

On Thursday, Eduardo Bartolomeo, who replaced him, said he was “committed to leading Vale through the most challenging moment in its history”. 

Just after North Korea fired off missile tests the US seized a North Korean cargo ship

The ship was apparently violating sanctions by shipping in coal.

The vessel was actually detained about a month ago, in Indonesia, but the US have just moved on it. Its one of North Korea’s largest bulk carriers.
US President Trump comments (not directly on the seizure):
  • “The relationship continues … I know they want to negotiate, they’re talking about negotiating. But I don’t think they’re ready to negotiate”
  • “nobody is happy” (about North Korea’s latest missile launch)
North Korean cargo shipKim’s new Tinder pal.
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