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European shares end with modest gains

UK FTSE flat

The major European indices are ending with modest gains on the day.
  • German DAX, +0.2%
  • France’s CAC, +0.1%
  • UK’s FTSE, unchanged
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.2%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.16%

In the benchmark 10 year note sector yields are ending higher

  • Germany 0.056%, unchanged
  • France 0.421%, +2.2 basis points
  • UK 1.221%, +1.0 basis points
  • Spain 1.082%, +3.3 basis points
  • Italy 2.580%, +3.9 basis points

In the Forex market, the GBP is the strongest while the CAD is the weakest on the back of a weaker first-quarter business outlook survey.

Greek debt touches lowest yield since 2005

Greek bond yields hit their lowest in nearly 14 years, highlighting a comeback for the country that was the focal point of the debt crisis that crippled the eurozone a decade ago.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 3.274 per cent, its lowest since September 16 2005. Historically, Greek debt has attracted lower volumes of trade than other eurozone countries.

Greece last month sold its first 10-year bond in nine years, raising €2.5bn of paper prices at a 3.9 per cent yield. Order books topped €11.8bn.

The country has entered a “period of economic growth that puts it among the top performers in the eurozone”, an IMF March report said. The fund projects real gross domestic product growth of 2.4 per cent for 2019.

A broad rally in the sovereign debt market last month pushed the equivalent German bund yield negative for the first time since 2016.

A deal to repay IMF loans is imminent, Reuters reported on Monday, citing the words of a senior official. The official said on Friday that Greece was hoping to strike a deal over the weekend to repay about half of the loans early as it seeks to lower its debt-servicing costs.

Sentiment towards Greece however remained somewhat muted on Monday.

“The economy has returned to growth but is not as dynamic as had been hoped,” said Oxford Economics on Monday. “However, unless Greece can kick-start the economy and significantly expand its narrow tax base, it will remain trapped in a high-debt/low-growth environment. This almost guarantees the official creditors a firm grip on Greece’s economic affairs.”

Reuters, citing unnamed sources, reported that Greece is planning a bond issue in June to raise money for the repayment.

Citigroup earnings ring a similar tune to that of Goldman’s

Earnings beat estimates but equities revenue misses as well

  • EPS $1.87 vs $1.80 estimate
  • Equity markets revenue $842 million vs $928 million estimate
  • FICC markets revenue $3.45 billion vs $3.18 billion estimate
Quarterly revenue comes in at $18.58 billion, which is just under the $18.87 billion estimate but within range of what is expected. The numbers basically tell the same story as what we saw with Goldman’s earnings report earlier.
Overall, the beats here should give confidence to US stocks to still gain today despite the low expectations. But let’s see if there will be any hiccups for equity investors in the trading session ahead. So far, they haven’t stepped on any earnings-related landmines just yet.
That said, markets seem to be focusing a bit on the disappointments and the revenue misses more than the EPS beats. That could be something that takes a bit of the shine off of stocks at the open later.

Goldman Sachs Q1 earnings report tops estimates

Another slight beat for financials following that of JP Morgan last Friday

  • EPS $5.71 vs $4.97 estimate
  • Equities sales and trading revenue $1.77 billion vs $1.83 billion estimate
  • FICC sales and trading revenue $1.84 billion vs $1.78 billion estimate
Equities trading may have missed but FICC trading revenue recorded just a 11% drop from last year. The estimate for that was for a 14% drop instead. Overall net revenue came in at $8.81 billion and that’s roughly in the middle of a range of estimates, so that’s neither a beat or a miss on the face of things.
As a whole, I’d take this as a win for Goldman as JP Morgan’s earnings report was rather exceptional and would be tough for others to match up. That said, shares are paring some gains in pre-market trading now up just 0.5% after 1.0% gains earlier before the earnings report was released.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.37% at 22,169.11

Tokyo’s main index finally cracks above the 200-day moving average

Nikkei 15-04

Sentiment in Wall Street from Friday and a surge higher in exporter stocks – on a weaker yen from last week – helped to see the Nikkei rally to start the week. Asian equities are generally buoyed as well with the Shanghai Composite up by 0.6% currently.

However, Treasury yields are still looking a bit heavy as markets are trying to settle on a firm narrative; leading to mixed sentiment in the currencies space. 10-year yields are down by 1.3 bps to 2.553% and that’s putting a bit of a drag in USD/JPY as it trades at 111.90 now.
European equities may take a slight cue from their Asian counterparts but unless US equity futures – which are now flat – also join in on the party, risk sentiment is likely to stay a cautiously optimistic ahead of US trading.

Currencies, Treasuries not too phased by US-China trade reports for now

Signs of progress are lifting stocks but currencies, Treasuries are less amused

US China

Alongside more positive Chinese credit data from Friday, the headlines above are also helping to allow Asian equities to hang on to their gains for the day. However, currencies and Treasuries are not really reacting in the same light with risk currencies and the yen barely changed on the day – aside from the kiwi – while Treasury yields are actually lower as we move towards European trading.

Among the reports above, the one on a possible pact to stem off currency manipulation/intervention is what catches my eye. However, I would only believe it should we hear the same from Chinese sources rather than Mnuchin. I reckon that’s the same perception that the market has on any talks of progress between US and China on trade.
Until both sides start communicating the same message, I remain on the skeptical side on actual progress being made for the time being. That said, given there’s little else on the economic calendar today and little else to focus on, markets could still turn towards a further extension of Friday’s risk-on rally (focus remains on improved Chinese credit data).
But if anything, I wouldn’t count on it lasting throughout the week.
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