Archives of “April 2019” month

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Cable crumbles and is now testing the March low

  
Analysis, Forex

Pound falls in a reversal

It’s a tough day for the cable bulls. GBP/USD hit a one-week high of 1.3019 but has since reversed down to the lowest since March 10 at 1.2947. The low in March was 1.2939 and that’s a critical support level.
Here’s an 8-hour chart:
Pound falls in a reversal
Cable is caught in a large US dollar bid at the moment and there are no easy answers for what’s driving it. I think equity inflows are part of the story with Q1 earnings looking a lot better than expected. US futures are only up modestly but we’ll see what happens at the open.

Trump’s state visit to Britain confirmed for early June

  
Analysis, Politics

Donald Trump’s long-awaited state visit to the UK will take place on June 3-5, Buckingham Palace and Downing Street have confirmed.

The US president and first lady will be a guest of the Queen during the visit and also hold talks with prime minister Theresa May in Downing Street. President Trump will also attend an event in Portsmouth to commemorate the 75th anniversary of D-Day, involving live performances and military displays.

Number 10 said the event would be “one of the greatest British military spectacles in recent history” involving a fly-past of RAF aircraft and more than 11 Royal Navy vessels.

“The UK and United States have a deep and enduring partnership that is rooted in our common history and shared interests,” said Mrs May. “We do more together than any two nations in the world and we are both safer and more prosperous because of our co-operation.”

When President Trump last visited Britain in the summer of 2017 there were demonstrations in London and in other cities.

He also sparked controversy by criticising Mrs May in an interview with The Sun newspaper that ran the day before he met the UK leader. Mr Trump criticised the way she was handling Brexit and suggested that a US-UK trade deal was unlikely, although he rapidly backtracked.

No love for oil as Canadian dollar hits four-week low

  
Analysis, Forex

USD/CAD rises to highest since March 28

USD/CAD rises to highest since March 28
Yesterday’s fall in USD/CAD has been reversed as the pair jumps more than 50 pips to 1.3019. The latest leg of the rally hit stops above the April high of 1.3403.
It’s part of a quick, broad rally in the US dollar that pushed the dollar index to a five-day high.
The strength in USD/CAD is a bit of a puzzle. Oil is near a six-month high, although its 50-cents from the intraday high. Part of the story might be jitters about the BOC tomorrow. Flows must be part of the story but this is time of month when we generally see CAD-positive oil settlement flows.

What is worth worrying about is China. Reports yesterday about China paring back stimulus hit Shanghai stocks hard on Monday and is something to continue to worry about. The Shanghai Comp was down 0.5% today in more stable trading but this might be a delayed reaction to the potential for less China demand.

Saudi Arabia said to plan cautious response to US action on Iran oil

  
Analysis, Crude

Bloomberg reports

Oil

The report says that Saudi Arabia is ready to boost oil production in response to tighter US sanctions on Iran but that it doesn’t plan any radical moves. According to people familiar with policy deliberations in Riyadh, the kingdom wants to see a decline in Iranian shipments before boosting output significantly.

This goes hand in hand with earlier statements and merely adds to the notion that Saudi Arabia will very much be in a wait-and-see mode as they wait on the full extent of the sanctions to hit on 2 May.
Even if they do try and offset the shortfall here, expect it to be done within the OPEC+ output cut quota so in essence, it will give markets little reason to be convinced of an immediate fall in oil prices – and that’s something that Saudi Arabia would be happy about too.

EUR/CHF climbs to five-month high as franc continues to hold weaker post-Easter

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/CHF moves above 1.1440 for the first time since 8 November

EUR/CHF D1 23-04

The way that EUR/CHF has rebounded since testing support just under 1.1200 would definitely put a smile on SNB head Thomas Jordan’s face. The pair has now climbed to its highest level since 8 November as the franc continues to stay weaker, aided by some commentary by Jordan himself two weeks ago here.
That said, the move higher here is hardly anything to shout about as the pair remains rather confined in a narrow range between levels just under 1.1200 and the 1.1500 handle since mid-August last year.
The fundamentals of the franc hasn’t really changed over the past year but technically, price momentum is now more bullish after breaking above both key daily moving averages. That could result in a move to test the 1.1500 level in the coming sessions should buyers be able to find enough conviction on such a move, if it is also supported by fundamental factors i.e. risk sentiment of course.

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Brexit catch-up: Where are we at now?

  
  Analysis

Not much has happened over the Easter break in the UK

May Tusk

The government is continuing to hold talks with the Labour party but as it stands, they don’t seem to be making any real progress with regards to breaking the current Brexit impasse. And it sure doesn’t look like things can or will get any better from hereon. For there to be a compromise, either one of the parties will have to move their red lines and at this juncture, May’s government looks to be the one that needs to do so or else she will face a barrage of calls for her to step down.
That brings us to the other development that we have seen, in that there are reports claiming that a top Tory lawmaker is looking to plan a move to oust May by the end of June if things are still going nowhere with regards to Brexit.
Do be reminded that May’s position as leader of the Tory party cannot be challenged at the moment but the reports say that 1922 Committee chair, Graham Brady, may be in on this coup here to see that rule be changed.
Whatever the case is, we’re no closer to solving the Brexit stalemate since the start of the year but the can has been kicked down the road until Halloween Day so we still have many more months of this malaise to look forward to.
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