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Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.3% q/q expected

Latest data released by Eurostat – 30 April 2019

  • Prior (Q4) +0.2%
  • Preliminary GDP +1.2% vs +1.1% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.1%; revised to +1.2%
Slight beats in the initial readings here and that should allow the euro to stay perky on the day as EUR/USD continues to threaten a break of the 200-hour moving average and establish a more near-term bullish bias above 1.1200. Well, so far it has been a positive day in terms of economic data releases for the euro so let’s see if the Italian Q1 GDP report can bring it home in the next hour.

Japan’s Emperor Akihito abdicates

Emperor Akihito has abdicated, stepping down from his role as symbol of the Japanese state and becoming the first to voluntarily depart the Chrysanthemum throne in around 200 years.

In a formal, sombre ceremony that began at 5pm local time and lasted around 12 minutes, Akihito read a message of thanks to and offered a prayer that the new era, which begins at midnight and will be called “Reiwa”, would be a stable and fruitful one.

The ritual, which took place in a chamber within the Imperial palace known as the “Room of Pine”, was carried out in front of regalia that include an ancient sword and a sacred jewel.

The abdication was carried out a day ahead of the enthronement on Wednesday of Akihito’s eldest son, Crown Prince Naruhito.

“Since ascending the throne 30 years ago I have performed my duties as Emperor with a deep sense of trust in and respect for the people and I consider myself most fortunate to have been able to do so. I sincerely thank the people who accepted and supported me in my role as the symbol of the state,” said the 85-year old in his final speech as Emperor.

The Emperor’s message followed a short address by the Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, who thanked him for fulfilling his responsibilities and for giving the Japanese people “courage and hope”.

BP posts lower first-quarter earnings in a ‘volatile’ period

BP joined its rivals in reporting lower first-quarter earnings compared with a year ago as the UK-listed energy major noted weaker prices and refinery margins.

Underlying replacement cost profits, BP’s definition of net income and the measure tracked most closely by analysts, was $2.4bn in the three months to March 31. This compares with $2.6bn in the same period the year before and analysts’ consensus estimates of $2.3bn.

Chief executive Bob Dudley said in a statement: “We produced resilient earnings and cash flow through a volatile period that began with weak market conditions.”

Oil and gas production from BP’s operations rose 2 per cent from a year ago to 3.8m barrels of oil equivalent per day. This took into account new production from the acquisition of BHP’s US shale assets and projects in Trinidad, Egypt and the Gulf of Mexico coming online in 2019.

Still, higher output was offset by lower oil prices, maintenance activity in the Gulf of Mexico and weather disruptions elsewhere in the US.

Meanwhile, lower refining margins were only partially offset by strong marketing and the overall trading business. Downstream results were hit by “lower industry refining margins and narrower North American heavy crude oil discounts”, BP said. (more…)

Germany April unemployment change -12k vs -7k expected

Latest data released by the Federal Employment Agency – 30 April 2019

Latest data released by the Federal Employment Agency - 30 April 2019
  • Prior -7k
  • Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.9% expected
  • Prior 4.9%
Unemployment change comes off more than expected but it’s nothing too notable as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate continues to hold at a record low of 4.9%. All this sounds good on paper but the fact is that this hasn’t translated into meaningful wage or inflationary pressures in the euro area.

Saudi oil minister says OPEC+ deal extension possible to end of the year

Comments by Saudi oil minister, Khalid Al-Falih

OPEC
  • Says Saudi Arabia won’t exceed its OPEC+ deal output limit
I reckon markets are already anticipating that this would happen but no doubt official confirmation next month and in June could potentially still give oil prices a brief lift. The bigger question now will be, is Russia on board with this? That will be a key area to watch over the next few weeks.

Here is what’s on the economic calendar in Asia today – China PMIs!

China PMIs for April will be during the session here, 0100GMT and the private survey at 0145GMT

Preview here:

  • China April PMIs are released from Tuesday – heads up preview

Otherwise, from the top:

2200 GMT New Zealand financial statements for 9 months into the fiscal year-on-yearThis is where 2301 GMT UK data – GFK Consumer Confidence for April, expected -13, prior -13

2301 GMT UK data again, Lloyds Business Barometer for April, prior 10

2330 GMT Australia ANZ/Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, week ended April 28.

  • Last week was a good jump to 119.5

0100 GMT New Zealand, ANZ business survey for April

  • Business Confidence prior -38.0 (this is running along at deep, deep lows)
  • Business Activity Outlook prior 6.3

0100 GMT China PMIs, preview here (ICYMI!):

  • China April PMIs are released from Tuesday – heads up preview

0130 GMT Australia Private Sector Credit for March

  • expected 0.3% m/m, prior 0.3%
  • expected 4.0% y/y, prior 4.2%
  • The weaker housing sector has impacted on credit growth (or vice versa … arguments rage!), its slow. I’ll be interested in the credit to business, which is part of the detail – the data has been choppy around a slow uptrend, its been decelerating from that slow trend also.

0145 GMT back to China for more PMI – this time the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI

  • expected 50.9, prior 50.8
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