The clock is ticking towards another launch of a new QE
Archives of “April 29, 2019” day
rssDay 1 of Japanese Golden week market holidays passes without a flash crash. 5 to go.
Japanese markets are closed this week and Monday next week. reopen Tuesday 7 May.
- Japan’s Financial Services Agency is warning of possible increased volatility in financial markets.
- Japan 10-day market closure … here’s the reason there is huge fear of a yen flash crash
With Japan out the light liquidity for forex prior to Japan opening has been extended each day to Singapore and Hong Kong markets getting active. Fears are of another flash crash like we saw in January (see the links, above)..
Its 8.30am in and Singapore now, so day 1 is pretty much in the bag.
No flash.
Oil – Kuwait voicing concern over threats to close the Strait of Hormuz
Kuwait’s deputy foreign minister with some alarm prior to oil markets getting active this new week.
- Says the country is looking at threats orehere heref closing Strait of Hormuz with concern
- Hopes to distance region from this tension
This is in relation to Iran expressing intent to close the Strait. This has been ongoing, accelerating in past days. Iran once again threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend. The US have demanded buyers of Iranian oil stop purchases by May or face sanctions.
Both S&P and Fitch rating agencies warn UK rating still at risk from a no-deal Brexit
S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have warned the UK credit rating remains at risk of a further downgrade.
Fitch acknowledge that the Eu extension granted to the UK (until 31 October) dies reduce the risk of a no deal exit, but does not eliminate it.
S&P cite amongst reasons for their negative outlook
- risk of sustained economic weakness
- worsening government finances
if the UK loses its access to EU markets. Add that the are wary of investors losing confidence in the UK and risk that GBP status as a reserve currency.
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting this week – heads up preview
The Federal Open Market Committee meet his week, announcement on May 1.
Spoiler alert – expect no change, on hold. That’s pretty much unanimous.
At the March meeting the committee affirmed the shift to dovish, revising down forecasts for economic activity and for rates ahead. Wariness was enhanced, risks noted more strongly, and that tone is likely in communications after this meeting. Having said this, sentiment globally has improved a touch, the outlook for China is not as dour. And Friday’s US GDP report was a ripper. This is reflected in market pricing for Fed cuts for the rest of 2019 having declined.
Thought For A Day
