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Kudlow says Trump has not made up mind on higher fuel tax

Fuel tax would be part of infrastructure plan

My guess is that the White House is floating this for a reason. A fuel tax would lower gasoline demand at the margins and that would be a small drag for crude in the bigger picture.
The US has some of the world’s lowest gasoline prices for a developed nation. However it also has larger cars on the road that other developed nations and a well-established anti-tax lobby.

Lagarde says 70% of the global economy is still slowing

Sobering reminder as stocks hit a record high

A bet on stocks right now is a bet that pivots from central banks will spark growth later in the year. For all the strength we’ve had in the past few months, there isn’t much backing from the data so far.
More:
  • Low inflation is ‘highly mysterious’
  • Says she expects China-US trade deal
  • Concerned about the overall level of global debt

US dollar edges higher after PCE report

Dollar generally subdued

The US dollar has ticked higher after the March PCE report.
A few of the elements in the data balance out. Inflation was once-again soft but that was foreshadowed in Friday’s GDP report so it doesn’t come as a big surprise.
In terms of consumers, spending was surprisingly strong but income levels fell well short of what was expected.
So there’s a long list of a pros and cons after the report and the dollar is generally mixed. USD/JPY ticked higher to 111.82 from 111.72 beforehand:
Dollar generally subdued
Part of that is a creep higher in Treasury yields. US 10s are up 3 bps to 2.53%. The euro and pound also hit the lows of European trading on the headlines.
On the flipside, the commodity currencies are doing a bit better against the US dollar after the report.
For the next move in the dollar, look to equities and commodity prices.

Visa and Mastercard agree deal with EU to cut foreign card fees

Mastercard and Visa have promised to reduce the fees charged on purchases made in the EU with foreign-issued debit and credit cards, the latest concession in the payment companies’ long-running antitrust battle with Brussels.

Retailers will be charged an average of 40 per cent less on purchases made in the European Economic Area using Mastercard, Maestro, Visa, Visa Electron and V-PAY credit and debit cards issued in countries outside the EEA.

The fees will be reduced for five and a half years and Visa and Mastercard can be fined up to 10 per cent of their global turnover if they fail to meet their commitments.

European competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said the binding commitments “will reduce the costs borne by retailers,” and when taken with earlier decisions will “lower prices for European retailers to do business, ultimately to the benefit of all consumers”.

Brussels has been investigating various transaction fees charged by the payment companies for over a decade.

The EU enforcer fined Mastercard €570m in January for limiting the ability of retailers and banks to shop around between member states to offer lower fees, thereby restricting competition between banks and raising payment costs for retailers and customers.

In 2009 Mastercard agreed to limit the fees charged on cross-border EU purchases made with European-issued cards — to a maximum of 0.2 per cent of transaction value for debit cards and 0.3 per cent for credit cards.

Visa soon followed suit and in 2015 the EU’s Interchange Fee Regulation made those caps the law.

The two companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Mnuchin: Hopes that US, China can finalise trade deal in two more rounds of talks

Hopeful optimism? We’ve been here before…

  • Enforcement mechanism in US-China trade talks is close to done
  • Says that Chinese espionage issues are separate from trade, economic issues
  • Not concerned about US yield curve, not worried about recession risk
This feels like a paraphrase of the previous edition of optimistic headlines saying that we could’ve seen a trade deal in April and then May and as of last week, June. Nonetheless, the two parties are scheduled to meet again tomorrow so let’s see if there will be anything notable after their talks this time around.

IMF: Saudi Arabia needs oil at $85 to balance budget

IMF projects a higher budget deficit for Saudi Arabia in 2019

They see the kingdom posting budget deficit of 7.9% of GDP this year and that is notably higher than the 4.6% budget deficit seen in 2018. IMF notes that in order for the kingdom to balance its budget, oil must move towards $85 at least.

Well, Saudi Arabia is already trying to get it up to $80 with their lack of conviction in responding to Iran sanctions so…

Challenge accepted

China – US trade talks recommence on Tuesday. Mnuchin says talks in ‘final laps’.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer will be in Beijing again tomorrow for more talks on trade with the Chinese.

The flow of b/s hasn’t stopped, Mnuchin in the NY Times:
  • “We’re getting into the final laps”
And concedes:
  • more work remains to be done
  • talks are nearing a point where they would either produce a deal or end with no agreement
  • declined to predict whether the negotiations would be wrapped up by the end of June
This despite the US giving in on more Chinese demands …. concessions on drug protections.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer will be in Beijing again tomorrow for more talks on trade with the Chinese.

Here’s what you missed in Asian markets while you were watching GOT

well, not much here either …  The US dollar is barely changed since early Asia. Chinese stocks are down though.

  • Chi next down circa 1%
  • Shanghai composite down 0.6%
  • HK is up half a percent
  • Australia (ASX) down half a precent
 As I said the USD Is little changed, down a touch. EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD all up a few points to begin the week. Cable also.
Yen us very quiet indeed. Japan is on holiday but that’s no excuse, everyone lese here in Asia is open.
Well, not much here either …  The US dollar is barely changed since early Asia. Chinese stocks are down though.
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