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China looking to lift a ban on poultry and possibly looking to buy more pork

According to sources as part of a trade deal

According to sources, China is looking to lift a trade ban on poultry and may buy more pork to meet a growing supply deficit. This is part of a trade deal with the US.  However, it is not willing to allow a prohibited growth drug used in roughly half of the US hog herd.  The China hog population has been hurt by an African swine fever.  According to sources 200 million pigs could be culled or die as a result of the fever (about 30% of the pork output).
You can read more about the ins and outs of the pork and chicken trade issues HERE.

European shares close higher on the day led by the German Dax.

German Dax up 0.7%

The major European stock markets are now closed and the direction is higher on the day, led by the German Dax. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.7%
  • France’s CAC, +0.4%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.12%
The benchmark 10 year yields are ending marginally higher:
  • Germany 0.063%, +0.7 basis points
  • France 0.420%, unchanged
  • UK 1.22%, unchanged
  • Spain 1.085%, unchanged
  • Italy 2.593%, +1.5 basis points
In other markets as European traders look for the exits:
  • spot gold is down $12.85 or 1% at $1275
  • WTI crude oil futures are up $.15 or 0.24% at $63.56
In the US, major stock indices are higher but trading near lows for the day
  • S&P index of 2.3 points or 0.08% at 2908
  • NASDAQ index of 21.6 points or 0.27% at 7997.93
  • Dow industrial average is up 51.87 points or 0.20% at 26435.59
US yields are moving higher today and trading more toward the highs for the day:
  • 2 year 2.404%, +1.2 basis points
  • 5 year 2.399%, +2.7 basis points
  • 10 year 2.585%, +3.1 basis points
  • 30 year 2.9903%, +2.2 basis points

USDJPY – at the lows today – held above the old ceiling. Buyers remain in control.

Buyers and sellers are battling

The USDJPY is also in a down and up market as the pair continues to consolidate the sharp move up at the end of the week last week (from 110.838 to 112.09). The pair since the high has traded down of 111.835. That is just above the old ceiling at 111.79-817 area.   Support held and the price moved back higher.

Buyers and sellers are battling

The pair has stalled against a topside trend line at 112.03 and below the 1.1209 highs (double top).


So technical levels are holding. The problem is 111.83 to 112.03 is only 20 pips. That  ain’t a lot of price action. The price will not stay that confined for long.  There will be a break at some point.
Given the run higher higher from last week and the holding of the old ceiling on the correction, I have to give the nod to the buyers as long as the ceiling can hold.   Traders would have more confidence the longer that support level holds.
Looking at the daily chart, the pair based last week near the 100 day MA and moved above the 200 day MA as well (green line). The pair has the 112.076 to 112.279 area as an area to get above. That is upside target now for the pair (see chart below).
USDJPY on the daily chart has overhead resistance to get above.

Gold takes out the March lows and nears the worst levels of the year

What’s driving the gold market right now

Commentary so far in Q1 earnings has been solid but it’s very early. Today the CFO at Bank of America said the economy was “solid” even though growth has slowed.
What the gold market is trying to figure out is whether central banks are going to have to ease further. That’s slowly shifting towards ‘no’. The chance of a Fed cut this year is down to 38% from as much as 76% in late March. Not coincidentally, gold was at $1326 at the time.
In short, gold is basically a trade on Fed easing and a trade on bad news coming.
Right now, the news isn’t exactly glowing but it’s not getting worse. That could change in a heartbeat but with the breakout of AUD/JPY to the upside, I think gold is vulnerable and a break of the January low will be ugly.
Gold chart

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.24% at 22,221.66

Tokyo’s main index stays buoyed above its 200-day moving average

Nikkei 16-04

Asian stocks are mostly firmer on the day as risk sentiment in Asia is seen a bit more optimistic. Of note, Chinese stocks are rallying with the Shanghai Composite index up by 1.5% currently. US equity futures are also trading up by around 0.2% so that will help feed into more positive tones as we begin the European morning.
However, bond yields are showing less enthusiasm as they continue to stay near flat levels on the day and that’s not really helping to give currency traders much to work with. USD/JPY continues to sit just under the 112.00 handle and is likely to sit narrowly in a tight range as we look towards more earnings results to come in US trading later.

Rio Tinto cuts 2019 iron ore outlook on cyclone damage

Rio Tinto cut its 2019 guidance for shipments of iron ore to between 333 and 343m tonnes on Tuesday as a result of cyclone damage at its port in Western Australia.

The Anglo-Australian miner shipped 69.1m tonnes of the commodity used to make steel in the first quarter, down 14 per cent year on year, following weather disruptions in March and a fire at its Cape Lambert A port facility, the company said.

“Our iron ore business faced several challenges at the start of this year, particularly from tropical cyclones,” said Rio chief executive J-S Jacques, adding that the guidance for Pilbara shipments had been reduced.

The miner said earlier this month that it expected iron ore shipments for 2019 would come in at the lower end of its previous guidance of 338 to 350m tonnes.

Iron ore prices have climbed this year after Vale cut operations in Brazil following a dam accident in January that killed almost 300 people.

Macron vows to rebuild Notre-Dame

French President Emmanuel Macron vowed to launch a campaign to rebuild Notre-Dame cathedral in central Paris, even as a devastating fire continued to ravage one of the world’s best known religious and cultural monuments.

“We were able to build this cathedral more than 800 years ago and over the centuries to enlarge it and improve it, and I tell you very solemnly this evening, this cathedral — we will rebuild it, all together,” he said in front of the famous twin towers on the Ile de la Cité in central Paris shortly before midnight on Monday. Mr Macron said a national fund would be launched tomorrow.

“Notre-Dame de Paris is our history, our literature, the life of our imagination, the place where we have lived all our great moments, our epidemics, our wars, our liberations, it’s the epicentre of our life,” he said, “It’s a cathedral of all the French even when they have never been to it. This history is ours, and it is burning.”

Fed – If Powell hikes before the 2020 election, pressure to resign will be great (does he care?)

Here is interesting though from an analyst on Fed credibility, political pressure and more.

Something to have a ponder on while we await Asia getting active. Though I’d suggest its not a scenario that would be surprising.
  • Trump has continually slammed the central bank, and particularly Powell …. “If they were ever to increase rates, God forbid, before the November 2020 elections, I think the drumbeat to try to get … [Powell] out of office would be great,” 
  • “It is not as if the president can fire the Fed chairman. He cannot. But he can make it extremely uncomfortable to occupy that position,”
  • And:
  • Sri-Kumar thinks the Fed loses credibility when it doesn’t recognize that it made an error, pointing to Powell’s “pivot” in January, just weeks after the central bank suggested two hikes for 2019.
The piece is via CNBC, here is the link for more.
Would Powell resign? If it were me I wouldn’t , then I’d hike again just as a middle-finger salute 😀
Fed credibility, political pressure on powell
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