Archives of “April 12, 2019” day

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European shares end the week with gains today

  
Analysis, Global Indices

German Dax up 0.54%, FTSE up 0.14%.

The European markets are now closed for the week and the provisional closes are pointing to the upside.
  • German Dax, +0.54%
  • France’s CAC +0.33%
  • UK FTSE, +0.14%
  • Spain’s Ibex +0.30%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%
For the week results were mixed:
  • German DAX, -0.08%
  •  France’s CAC, +0.51%
  •  UK FTSE, -0.28%
  •  Spain’s Ibex, -0.38%
  •  Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.44%
In the benchmark 10 year yields:
  • Germany, 0.056%, +6.6 basis points
  • France, 0.40%, +6.8 basis points
  •  UK, 1.212%, +6.3 basis points
  •  Spain 1.050%, +4.6 basis points
  •  Italy +2.542%, +17.3 basis points

USDJPY trades to new session highs and test 112.00

  
Analysis, Forex

Cracked above the April high and stayed above

The USDJPY cracked above the April 5 high at 111.818 and stayed above today. It wasn’t without first testing it in the Asian session first.  That increases that levels importance. Stay above and the bulls remain in control. PS the low today based at another key swing level at 111.572.
USDJPY cracked above the April high and stayed above
Looking at the daily chart below, the pair is approaching the 112.00 area and also swing levels going back to November, December and March starting at the 112.07 to 112.279 area (see yellow area in chart below).  The high price in March reached 112.13. The 112.07-13 is target one and then 112.28 on a break of that level.

USDJPY on the daily is approaching the March 2018 highs at 112.07-13
Close risk has to be the 111.79-111.81 level (from the hourly – give a few pips).  Stay above, keeps the buyers in control. Move below and the break to new highs, loses some of its followers.

EURUSD soars and breaks out. Above topside trend line

  
Analysis, Forex

Shorts squeezed

The EURUSD is soaring in higher in trading today helped by risk on flows and technical breaks.
Shorts squeezed. EURUSD takes out technical levels
Technicaly, the price was able to get above – and move away from the 1.1285 area that has been a ceiling of late for the pair. After that, the pair cracked above a topside trend line at 1.1305 currently and has been able to stay above that line too.  We trade at session highs and the highest levels since March 26.  The pair is also trading above and below the 50% midpoint of the move down from the March 20 high at 1.13154 (high not shown).

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Libya’s oil chief says renewed fighting could wipe out crude production

  
Analysis, Crude

Comments by the head of Libya’s national oil company, Mustafa Sanalla

Oil

Tensions in Libya has been one of the reasons underpinning oil prices as of late and ongoing fighting near the ports will only increase prospects of oil failing to find a way out of Libya, leading to production being stopped as well.

His message is very much a repeat of the comments from yesterday via the FT here.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.73% at 21,870.56

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Tokyo’s main index closes higher in mixed session for Asian equities

Once again, the Nikkei rises but AxJ stocks are trading lower for the most part with Chinese equities losing ground on the session. The Hang Seng index is down by 0.4% while the Shanghai Composite is weaker by 0.8% as global growth concerns continue to weigh on stocks there as seen yesterday.

Overall, risk sentiment remains in more of a wait-and-see mood with US equity futures a tad higher as we await Chinese trade balance numbers. Also, earnings season is finally starting to kick into gear as well with banks reporting today – JP Morgan and Wells Fargo.

China’s Xi sends congratulatory message to Kim Jong Un on re-election win

  
Analysis, Politics

Sorry, should’ve said “re-election” since nobody else is allowed to stand

  • China says highly values its friendship with North Korea
  • Says willing to push forward its relationship with North Korea
Tensions between the world and North Korea has somewhat deteriorated after the Trump-Kim summit fracas in Vietnam but it’s good to see China still making communicating such messages (as they have done in the past) to keep some semblance of diplomacy – if you can even call it that.
The only vote that matters:
Kim election

Reuters poll: Chinese economy expected to expand by 6.2% in 2019

  
Analysis, Economy

Reuters’ latest poll shows that institutions are still favouring the Chinese economy to slow further despite policy support

China
  • China 2019 GDP growth seen at 6.2% (January poll at 6.3%)
  • China 2020 GDP growth seen at 6.0%
  • China 2019 inflation seen at 2.1% (January poll at 2.3%)
  • Sees PBOC keeping benchmark lending rates steady in 2019
  • Sees PBOC cutting RRR by another 150 bps before the end of the year
The numbers suggest that the 88 institutions surveyed see the Chinese economy slowing to a 29-year low of 6.2% but that still falls within the target range set out by authorities of between 6.0% and 6.5%. I wouldn’t be too fussed about the numbers to be honest.
Just take polls like these as a general sentiment indicator. In this case, it suggests that traders/investors are still rather skeptical on the Chinese economy rebounding and that the global growth slowdown will continue to be a key theme for financial markets throughout this year and next year as well.

Singapore’s central bank leaves its SGD policy unchanged

  
Analysis, Economy

Monetary Authority of Singapore leaves monetary policy unchanged

(the Bank manages its mon pol through the exchange rate rather than interest rates)
  • Maintains the current rate of appreciation of the $NEER policy band
  • No change to width and centre level
  • Policy stance is consistent with a modest and gradual appreciation path of the SNEER policy band that will ensure medium-term price stability.
  • MAS is revising the 2019 forecast range for mas core inflation to 1-2%, from 1.5-2.5% previously. core inflation is likely to come in near the mid-point of the revised forecast range.
  • 2019 forecast for CPI-all items inflation was revised down to 0.5-1.5% from 1-2% in February, taking into account the decline in global oil prices in late 2018. this forecast for headline inflation remains unchanged.
  • Despite some pickup in labour costs, inflationary pressures are mild and should remain contained.
  • GDP expected to come in slightly under midpoint of 1.5 – 3.5% 2019 forecast
Unchanged policy was the expected.
—
At the same time, Singapore GDP data for Q1 2019
  • 2.0% q/q (vs. 1.2% expected and 1.4% prior)
  • 1.3% y/y (expected 1.5%, prior 1.9)

Assange faces extradition to US after London arrest

  
  Analysis

Julian Assange is facing extradition to the US following his arrest at the Ecuadorean embassy in London, charged with involvement in a computer hacking conspiracy that led to one of the “largest compromises of classified information in US history”.

Hours after he was carried out of the mission in Knightsbridge by police, the WikiLeaks founder was found guilty at Westminster Magistrates’ Court of jumping bail on a 2010 extradition order to Sweden. Mr Assange faces up to 12 months in prison.

The US authorities are seeking the extradition of the 47-year-old activist, alleging that he helped former US army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning leak a treasure trove of official US documents and communications in a scandal that became known as “Cablegate”.

The US justice department indictment, filed in March 2018 but unsealed on Thursday, accused Mr Assange of helping Ms Manning to try to crack a password to Pentagon computers.

Mr Assange’s arrest ends a seven-year saga that has pitted international legal authorities against one of the most controversial transparency advocates. He has claimed that the original case against him in Sweden over an alleged rape has been part of a US-led conspiracy.

Mr Assange’s US lawyer, Barry Pollack, said the arrest raised serious issues over the ability of advocates and journalists to uncover government wrongdoing, and called the US case “unprecedented”.

“While the indictment against Julian Assange disclosed today charges a conspiracy to commit computer crimes, the factual allegations against Mr Assange boil down to encouraging a source to provide him information and taking efforts to protect the identify of that source,” he said.

If found guilty on the American charges, Mr Assange faces a maximum prison sentence of five years, the US justice department said.

Swedish prosecutors said they would now examine a request by the lawyer of Mr Assange’s alleged victim to restart their investigation. They noted that they were able to reopen the probe until next August under Sweden’s statute of limitations for rape.

London’s Metropolitan Police were able to seize Mr Assange after Ecuador lifted its asylum protection and invited British authorities into the embassy. Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, said in a video statement that the country had withdrawn diplomatic protection because Mr Assange had flouted the conditions of the arrangement, recently exhibiting “discourteous and aggressive behaviour”.

WikiLeaks said in a Twitter statement that the termination of Mr Assange’s asylum was “illegal”, while Russian officials, who have spoken out in defence of Mr Assange during his time in the embassy, on Thursday described his treatment as a “witch hunt”.

“The whole story, with the persecutions against him, the witch hunt, the creation of inhumane conditions of existence, obliterates freedom of speech and the right to disseminate information,” said a foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova. “This is a blow to the rights of a journalist. And there can be no other assessment.” (more…)

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